Hurricane Irene Prepares to Leave the Bahamas and Head for the US

[nofurylike]

By JeffMasters
August 25, 2011

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMas...rynum=1898

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Hurricane warnings are in effect for all of the Bahamas. Hurricane and tropical storm watches will likely be posted for the Carolina coastlines later this morning. At this time, Dare County Emergency Management has issued a mandatory evacuation order for all visitors in their county. Dare County Schools will also be closed Thursday and Friday.

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Irene is forecast to move to the northwest, passing over the northwest Bahamas by Thursday evening, then curving to the northeast. Irene then makes landfall in the US near or at the Outer Banks Saturday afternoon, then traveling along the mid-Atlantic coastline of the US. Sunday, Irene may make secondary landfall anywhere from New Jersey to Long Island and the southern New England coastline. In my opinion, New York City may be significantly impacted by Irene. (emphasis mine.) It is also important to note that the windfield of Irene is expected to be large, affecting areas distant from the immediate track of Irene's center. Tropical storm forces winds are expected to be found out to at least 150 miles away from Irene's center on Friday afternoon.

NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a Category 4 storm (winds faster than 130 mph) by Thursday morning. As Irene moves northward into cooler water, the intensity is expected to drop slowly to a Category 2 storm before making landfall in the Outer Banks.

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In my opinion, people living from the Carolinas to Cape Cod should pay close attention to Irene and prepare for a wide range of impacts. I think that there is a 75% chance of Irene's secondary landfall will be somewhere between JFK airport and Cape Cod. That said, Irene's size will cause significant impacts for people living far from it's center.

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[jaxx]

Thanks for the update. I hope people are getting out of Irene's way and to safety.

[azmouse]

I saw a program on the History Channel (it was produced last year) about the effects of a major hurricane hitting New York directly.

I hope the program wasn't prescient. This could rival what we saw happen in New Orleans.

[jaxx]

(08-25-2011 09:03 AM)azmouse Wrote:  I saw a program on the History Channel (it was produced last year) about the effects of a major hurricane hitting New York directly.

I hope the program wasn't prescient. This could rival what we saw happen in New Orleans.

That's a scary thought.

[azmouse]

(08-25-2011 09:05 AM)jaxx Wrote:  

(08-25-2011 09:03 AM)azmouse Wrote:  I saw a program on the History Channel (it was produced last year) about the effects of a major hurricane hitting New York directly.

I hope the program wasn't prescient. This could rival what we saw happen in New Orleans.

That's a scary thought.

It was a scary program. Certainly they were showing the worst case scenario but the flooding in a coastal city, and the wind damage to skyscrapers could be very bad. And evacuating a city the size of NY would be a challenge.

[jaxx]

They are now saying the size of Irene dwarfs Florida which may cause buckets of rain up the coast as it moves along. Category 3 and may get to low 4. Be careful anyone in the way!

[jaxx]

I just saw this and wanted to pass it along:

<..> New York City officials had begun preparations to evacuate residents from low-lying areas of the city if necessary. The city's subway stations and tunnels would likely be flooded in places, and officials plan to shut the system down ahead of time to reduce damage to the infrastructure.

"The sense is that we're going to be facing a strong tropical storm" with winds of 40 to 60 mph, said Office of Emergency Management Commissioner Joseph F. Bruno.

But Bruno added that the city's agencies were preparing for a Category 1 hurricane with winds surpassing 74 mph and waters surging dangerously in low-lying areas. With five hospitals and nursing homes in the area, officials were readying to possibly evacuate the most frail and needy.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44254106/ns/...lZl-F15p7k

Also this:

NYC, Long Island vulnerability exposed by Irene
City's 'wind tunnel' effect 'intensifies how projectiles are moving,' says one expert
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44262144/ns/...sed-irene/

[nofurylike]

thank you, jaxx and azmouse! including for the additional information!

dreading what NYC might face ....

please, all, stay safe!!