Why Obama Won Debt Deal

[jaxx]

Why Obama Won Debt Deal
By craigcrawford On July 31, 2011

The President got what he most wanted, postponing another debt ceiling fight until after the election and without politically damaging entitlement cuts.

Everything else is eye wash. Most of the spending cuts are in the out years, which is another way of saying it won’t happen.

And one more committee to study cuts? Oh please, even if they call it a “super” committee that’s always a Capitol Hill euphemism for doing nothing. Adding so-called triggers for cuts if goals aren’t met also means nothing. Remember Gramm-Rudman?

http://craigcrawford.com/2011/07/why-oba...debt-deal/

[azmouse]

I just read this online and came here to post it. You beat me to it.

Nice to hear a more positive spin on this instead of all the doom and gloom.

[jaxx]

I thought so too. This isn't the end of the world as long as they raise the damned debt ceiling. Plus there are opportunities for revenue in the super group. It ain't all bad.

[SeattleGirl]

(07-31-2011 05:31 PM)jaxx Wrote:  I thought so too. This isn't the end of the world as long as they raise the damned debt ceiling. Plus there are opportunities for revenue in the super group. It ain't all bad.

But, but, I was all ready to set my hair on fire and run down the road screaming!

[RoyGBiv]

(07-31-2011 05:24 PM)jaxx Wrote:  Adding so-called triggers for cuts if goals aren’t met also means nothing. Remember Gramm-Rudman?

That's not quite an accurate way to look at it.

The automatic cuts required by Gramm-Rudman never went into effect because the process by which they were mandated to be calculated was declared unconstitutional.

[Cha]

Geeze jaxx, where did you find Craig Crawford?! I came back here for one more time to see if there was any change or positive outlook before I went on my much needed run and here we have a look at the positives.

Thanks!

[jaxx]

It's that old Hope thing! I still have it.

[Cha]

(07-31-2011 05:56 PM)jaxx Wrote:  It's that old Hope thing! I still have it.

Reading the comments under CC's Trail Mix I had to register to add some hope there among the PWs. I haven't commented yet but I got registered and will when I get back. There aren't many but some of them are ugly. The usual haters.

[TheNewMe]

Thanks for finding this. I'm now seeing his last tweet is:
"craig_crawford Craig Crawford
Getting impression media cant help stirring more debt fighting despite deal in the works, hooked on the crack hits"
9 minutes ago

[Arkana]

He didn't "win". There is no winner in this shitfight. Republicans made sure of that.

Team jersey politics are completely odious--ESPECIALLY in this situation.

Do I have faith that the President tried to defend essential programs? Yes. Do I think this deal has any goddamn merit other than the fact that it EXISTS and could potentially prevent a default? Fuck no, and anyone else who does is deluding themselves.

They have shown that they can make it impossible for him to govern, and what's worse--they have shown that they WILL destroy the country to make sure that their guy wins in 2012. We keep talking like the age of limited political warfare still applies--and it doesn't. The laws of fucking NATURE don't apply here!

[RoyGBiv]

(07-31-2011 06:50 PM)Arkana Wrote:  He didn't "win". There is no winner in this shitfight.

Team jersey politics are completely odious--ESPECIALLY in this situation.

Do I have faith that the President tried to defend essential programs? Yes. Do I think this deal has any goddamn merit other than the fact that it EXISTS and could potentially prevent a default? Fuck no, and anyone else who does is deluding themselves.

[Velleity]

(07-31-2011 06:50 PM)Arkana Wrote:  He didn't "win". There is no winner in this shitfight. Republicans made sure of that.

Team jersey politics are completely odious--ESPECIALLY in this situation.

Do I have faith that the President tried to defend essential programs? Yes. Do I think this deal has any goddamn merit other than the fact that it EXISTS and could potentially prevent a default? Fuck no, and anyone else who does is deluding themselves.

They have shown that they can make it impossible for him to govern, and what's worse--they have shown that they WILL destroy the country to make sure that their guy wins in 2012. We keep talking like the age of limited political warfare still applies--and it doesn't. The laws of fucking NATURE don't apply here!

Which is why we have to win back the House in 2012 and pick up more seats in the Senate. I hope enough voters are smart enough to understand that.

[jaxx]

(07-31-2011 06:50 PM)Arkana Wrote:  He didn't "win". There is no winner in this shitfight. Republicans made sure of that.

Team jersey politics are completely odious--ESPECIALLY in this situation.

Do I have faith that the President tried to defend essential programs? Yes. Do I think this deal has any goddamn merit other than the fact that it EXISTS and could potentially prevent a default? Fuck no, and anyone else who does is deluding themselves.

They have shown that they can make it impossible for him to govern, and what's worse--they have shown that they WILL destroy the country to make sure that their guy wins in 2012. We keep talking like the age of limited political warfare still applies--and it doesn't. The laws of fucking NATURE don't apply here!

Oh there's a winner alright, the country wins by staying afloat and therefore the people win by the same margin. What it costs is to be argued, but not the winning. The unprecedented attack by the teapubs on all things Obama has brought us close to the cliff, but we're still here. Are they done? No, not by a long shot. But a real winner doesn't have to take all in a contest, they only have to come out with enough points to move up to the next level.

I don't know what team jersey politics means, but I can guess.
GoBama!!

[There Is No Spoon]

(07-31-2011 08:33 PM)jaxx Wrote:  Oh there's a winner alright, the country wins by staying afloat and therefore the people win by the same margin.

So next time a terrorist takes a hostage, all we have to do is give them anything they ask for and we all win because the hostage didn't die, right?

There's a reason the US government doesn't negotiate with terrorists. We broke that rule and now there's no way to put that genie back in the bottle.

That's the loss here along with the job killing cuts.

[Cha]

(07-31-2011 08:33 PM)jaxx Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 06:50 PM)Arkana Wrote:  He didn't "win". There is no winner in this shitfight. Republicans made sure of that.

Team jersey politics are completely odious--ESPECIALLY in this situation.

Do I have faith that the President tried to defend essential programs? Yes. Do I think this deal has any goddamn merit other than the fact that it EXISTS and could potentially prevent a default? Fuck no, and anyone else who does is deluding themselves.

They have shown that they can make it impossible for him to govern, and what's worse--they have shown that they WILL destroy the country to make sure that their guy wins in 2012. We keep talking like the age of limited political warfare still applies--and it doesn't. The laws of fucking NATURE don't apply here!

Oh there's a winner alright, the country wins by staying afloat and therefore the people win by the same margin. What it costs is to be argued, but not the winning. The unprecedented attack by the teapubs on all things Obama has brought us close to the cliff, but we're still here. Are they done? No, not by a long shot. But a real winner doesn't have to take all in a contest, they only have to come out with enough points to move up to the next level.

I don't know what team jersey politics means, but I can guess.
GoBama!!

Thank you, jaxx! You absolutely have that right.

Go TeamObama! We're in the trenches here but see what's going on.

"Fact Sheet: Bipartisan Debt Deal: A Win for the Economy and Budget Discipline'
http://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheet-vic...can-people

[Ikonoklast]

Once again, President Obama has shown that he is a better poker player than anyone in Washington; he kept raising the stakes until the other side choked.

All the hyperventilating from the Left will be for naught, the final bill will be something we can not only live with, it will be a better deal than what anyone thinks it is..

This will be another big win for Democrats, mark my words.

Oh, and Boehner is fucked.

[Treestar]

I started reading about this on regular news sites and realized that it would not have me panicked if I had just read it there. IOW the right and left get their hair on fire over everything.

With an opposing congress of intransigents, it really is a pretty good deal. And we can't default.

I hope there is never a Republican President again but if so I hope that a D congress will be give them a taste of their medicine and just be intransigent and have only the goal of bringing that President down. They want to play hardball, fine.

[Cha]

(07-31-2011 07:09 PM)Treestar Wrote:  I started reading about this on regular news sites and realized that it would not have me panicked if I had just read it there. IOW the right and left get their hair on fire over everything.

With an opposing congress of intransigents, it really is a pretty good deal. And we can't default.

I hope there is never a Republican President again but if so I hope that a D congress will be give them a taste of their medicine and just be intransigent and have only the goal of bringing that President down. They want to play hardball, fine.

There's the glass 1/2 full on this and the glass 1/2 empty. At least there are some 1/2 fulls to look at. The default would be fucking disasterous..and I know President Obama and Team are always looking at ways to get a better deal for the American people in spite of the stupid fascists, intransigents' temporary takeover.

Assholes exposed themselves..I can see some excellent campaign ads for Dems in that.

[DFLforever]

(07-31-2011 07:09 PM)Treestar Wrote:  I started reading about this on regular news sites and realized that it would not have me panicked if I had just read it there. IOW the right and left get their hair on fire over everything.
.

I did the same thing. I've had my fill of panic and hysteria from the right and left these last two weeks.

[jaxx]

I suppose you can look at it that way. The best thing to do is get the terrorists out of office.
I've never been a quitter and what someone else thinks doesn't hold much power over me.

[There Is No Spoon]

(07-31-2011 08:49 PM)jaxx Wrote:  I suppose you can look at it that way. The best thing to do is get the terrorists out of office.
I've never been a quitter and what someone else thinks doesn't hold much power over me.

I still think negotiating with terrorists is wrong. Not sure what your last sentence means.

FYI - I use the normal threaded view and if you respond at the end of a thread without quoting my post, I may not see it as it looks like you're replying to the original post.

[jaxx]

The last sentence means you and I can disagree in peace. It doesn't mean I am swayed, and I don't expect you to be either. I'm ok negotiating with terrorists, they overplay their hand and you learn their secrets. Makes it harder for them down the road.

I'll use the quote when I directly reply from now on. It does make it better.

[Cha]

(07-31-2011 08:58 PM)jaxx Wrote:  The last sentence means you and I can disagree in peace. It doesn't mean I am swayed, and I don't expect you to be either. I'm ok negotiating with terrorists, they overplay their hand and you learn their secrets. Makes it harder for them down the road.

I'll use the quote when I directly reply from now on. It does make it better.

FYI, I look at your posts no matter where they are 'cause you always have something relevant and interesting to contribute 'specially now in these times of stress and mass confusion. Thanks.

[Willinois]

My biggest worry is about Obama supporting cuts to Social Security and Medicare. I wouldn't mind seeing cuts to high-income SS recipients, but politically Obama needs to let Republicans own the issue of entitlement cuts.

The latest compromise has no cuts to Social Security or Medicare. Good news. Much of the cuts come from defense spending, which is something all progressives wanted a few weeks ago before Reid proposed it. Tax increase for the rich are still on the table. Cutting oil subsidies is still on the table.

I'm sure anything will be described in apocalyptic terms, but this doesn't look so bad. When it comes to the tough decisions, they basically kicked the can down the road.

[jaxx]

(07-31-2011 09:17 PM)Willinois Wrote:  My biggest worry is about Obama supporting cuts to Social Security and Medicare. I wouldn't mind seeing cuts to high-income SS recipients, but politically Obama needs to let Republicans own the issue of entitlement cuts.

The latest compromise has no cuts to Social Security or Medicare. Good news. Much of the cuts come from defense spending, which is something all progressives wanted a few weeks ago before Reid proposed it. Tax increase for the rich are still on the table. Cutting oil subsidies is still on the table.

I'm sure anything will be described in apocalyptic terms, but this doesn't look so bad. When it comes to the tough decisions, they basically kicked the can down the road.

I've heard PBO and Pelosi say time after time....no benefit cuts. But like you said there are ways to cut without being drastic. They did kick the can sort of, but we didn't lose our shirts and they won't get to play this game again for a long time.

[Willinois]

(07-31-2011 09:23 PM)jaxx Wrote:  They did kick the can sort of, but we didn't lose our shirts and they won't get to play this game again for a long time.

Right. The debate will continue but Republicans won't be able to threaten the public with default. So that's a win.

[RoyGBiv]

(07-31-2011 09:31 PM)Willinois Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 09:23 PM)jaxx Wrote:  They did kick the can sort of, but we didn't lose our shirts and they won't get to play this game again for a long time.

Right. The debate will continue but Republicans won't be able to threaten the public with default. So that's a win.

Which is why I say this was nothing but a strategic political move to try to overcome a miscalculation about just how fanatical the Republican demands would be. To answer my own question elsewhere, Obama and congressional Democrats went into this thinking they could get something out of it based on the flawed assumption they were by and large dealing with reasonable people, at least in the leadership roles. They weren't. At some point in the past couple weeks they seem to have woken up to this reality and started damage control, which is what the "deal" that we hope will go through tomorrow is the result of. It removes the debt ceiling from the table until after the elections. In the end, that's all the Democrats could hope to achieve.

The question will be whether it was worth it. The *policy* enacted is going to be very bad for all of us, meaning the economy, jobs, etc. That will translate to a very hard political fight for Obama next year. Congress will suffer the same sorts of antagonisms that it normally does, but politically the reality they face in their home districts is quite different from the nonsensical "generic ballot" or overall opinion polls dealing with satisfaction with Congress. Most people hate Congress, but they tend to be just fine with their own representatives and blame it on "the other guy." The President and his party, however, get the blame when things are bad, and Obama personally will get blamed by the voters who are needed to reelect him if he doesn't find some way to counteract it starting tomorrow.

[Velleity]

(07-31-2011 09:49 PM)RoyGBiv Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 09:31 PM)Willinois Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 09:23 PM)jaxx Wrote:  They did kick the can sort of, but we didn't lose our shirts and they won't get to play this game again for a long time.

Right. The debate will continue but Republicans won't be able to threaten the public with default. So that's a win.

Which is why I say this was nothing but a strategic political move to try to overcome a miscalculation about just how fanatical the Republican demands would be. To answer my own question elsewhere, Obama and congressional Democrats went into this thinking they could get something out of it based on the flawed assumption they were by and large dealing with reasonable people, at least in the leadership roles. They weren't. At some point in the past couple weeks they seem to have woken up to this reality and started damage control, which is what the "deal" that we hope will go through tomorrow is the result of. It removes the debt ceiling from the table until after the elections. In the end, that's all the Democrats could hope to achieve.

The question will be whether it was worth it. The *policy* enacted is going to be very bad for all of us, meaning the economy, jobs, etc. That will translate to a very hard political fight for Obama next year. Congress will suffer the same sorts of antagonisms that it normally does, but politically the reality they face in their home districts is quite different from the nonsensical "generic ballot" or overall opinion polls dealing with satisfaction with Congress. Most people hate Congress, but they tend to be just fine with their own representatives and blame it on "the other guy." The President and his party, however, get the blame when things are bad, and Obama personally will get blamed by the voters who are needed to reelect him if he doesn't find some way to counteract it starting tomorrow.

I could not agree with you more on this one Roy.

I hope the President and his party have learned a valuable lesson here and that they will use it going forward.

[RoyGBiv]

(07-31-2011 09:17 PM)Willinois Wrote:  Tax increase for the rich are still on the table. Cutting oil subsidies is still on the table.

I don't think that we can consider this real in terms of practical politics. The deal, as presented to us so far, allows for revenue increases, but this is within the context of a committee that is charged with accounting for the increase in the debt limit through spending cuts and/or revenue increases. If that were the limit of the language, it would be fine, but what we have also is the additional caveat that if they don't agree on a proposal that reaches the required number, automatic cuts (not revenue increases) go into effect.

All a tax-averse committee has to do is not do anything.

Quote:I'm sure anything will be described in apocalyptic terms, but this doesn't look so bad. When it comes to the tough decisions, they basically kicked the can down the road.

I would certainly not describe this in apocalyptic terms, but neither am I going to kid myself that I should be happy about it. Whether it is truly bad will depend in large part on how the economy reacts in the coming months. I'm trying to find a silver lining in this, but no one has been able to point one out yet.

[jaxx]

Thanks Cha! I get a lot out of reading you and others here too. We have a good home here at DFP.

[janedrake]

Those of us who are strong supporters of the Prez will really need to step up to the plate now. People are not going to bother to try to understand this deal - it will be easier to take the path of least resistance and go along with the usual "progressive" talking heads and say, "oh, Obama caved." This was a completely racist and treasonous thing the GOP just pulled off... and they're chomping at the bit to do it again, no doubt. Somehow Obama and the Democratic Party are going to have to come up with a way to thwart this hostage-taking strategy of the Republicans. And they will have to go at it from the point of view of having domestic terrorists within the Congress. There was a time when I would have balked at calling Republicans that, but now there's no word too strong for those who again and again deliberately sabotage the country.

[jaxx]

(07-31-2011 09:22 PM)janedrake Wrote:  Those of us who are strong supporters of the Prez will really need to step up to the plate now. People are not going to bother to try to understand this deal - it will be easier to take the path of least resistance and go along with the usual "progressive" talking heads and say, "oh, Obama caved." This was a completely racist and treasonous thing the GOP just pulled off... and they're chomping at the bit to do it again, no doubt. Somehow Obama and the Democratic Party are going to have to come up with a way to thwart this hostage-taking strategy of the Republicans. And they will have to go at it from the point of view of having domestic terrorists within the Congress. There was a time when I would have balked at calling Republicans that, but now there's no word too strong for those who again and again deliberately sabotage the country.

My answer to the ones who will say PBO caved will be:
If he had caved this would have been finished a long time ago.

As long as we stick together janedrake, we can keep the truth out there. I think we can do that!!

[There Is No Spoon]

(07-31-2011 09:22 PM)janedrake Wrote:  Those of us who are strong supporters of the Prez will really need to step up to the plate now. People are not going to bother to try to understand this deal - it will be easier to take the path of least resistance and go along with the usual "progressive" talking heads and say, "oh, Obama caved." This was a completely racist and treasonous thing the GOP just pulled off... and they're chomping at the bit to do it again, no doubt. Somehow Obama and the Democratic Party are going to have to come up with a way to thwart this hostage-taking strategy of the Republicans. And they will have to go at it from the point of view of having domestic terrorists within the Congress. There was a time when I would have balked at calling Republicans that, but now there's no word too strong for those who again and again deliberately sabotage the country.

The so-called "progressives" would be bashing Obama no matter how this turned out. I don't even hear them any more - they're not much different than Freepers at this point.

I'm starting to wonder if the baggers haven't peaked in what they can achieve. You know, the old "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me". I think the Democrats have been sufficiently scarred by this experience and won't allow this sort of situation to occur in the future.

[janedrake]

Quote:"I'm starting to wonder if the baggers haven't peaked in what they can achieve. You know, the old "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me".

I definitely get that feeling There Is No Spoon. Twice now since the midterms, the teafraggers have deliberately taken this country to the economic brink -- and although it has been excruciating to watch play out, Obama refusing to let them dump onto him the responsibility for getting them out of this mess they created (vis a vis, invoking the 14th amendment), really put their dirty laundry out there for all to see. I get the feeling that this time, people actually got a very good look at the dregs of society that make up the teabaggers and do not at all like what they see.

[There Is No Spoon]

(07-31-2011 10:00 PM)janedrake Wrote:  

Quote:"I'm starting to wonder if the baggers haven't peaked in what they can achieve. You know, the old "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me".

I definitely get that feeling There Is No Spoon. Twice now since the midterms, the teafraggers have deliberately taken this country to the economic brink -- and although it has been excruciating to watch play out, Obama refusing to let them dump onto him the responsibility for getting them out of this mess they created (vis a vis, invoking the 14th amendment), really put their dirty laundry out there for all to see. I get the feeling that this time, people actually got a very good look at the dregs of society that make up the teabaggers and do not at all like what they see.

Ultimately, the typical pragmatic voter (like us here at DFP) will decide that even though we were tugged in different directions and felt like we gave up more than we should have, it's relatively easy to adapt to this plan since it doesn't hit the big 3 and eliminates this debt ceiling hostage taking until after the election. And the Bush tax cuts are still set to expire, though I just had a bad thought that this "super" commission might try to change that situation.

The baggers, on the other hand, played a disgusting role in this fracas and it's only just starting to settle in with me how over the top these teabaggers really are. I expect I'm not the only person who's now mulling over the roll of these tea-liban terrorists. I can tell you that my ex is livid at the Republicans and she is from a Republican family and all too often will try to see things from that perspective. She actually used the term "fascism" when trying to describe what she sees in the Republican actions. Hearing that from an a-political white conservative-leaning suburbanite was somewhat jaw-dropping actually.

[SeattleGirl]

(07-31-2011 10:18 PM)There Is No Spoon Wrote:  The baggers, on the other hand, played a disgusting role in this fracas and it's only just starting to settle in with me how over the top these teabaggers really are. I expect I'm not the only person who's now mulling over the roll of these tea-liban terrorists. I can tell you that my ex is livid at the Republicans and she is from a Republican family and all too often will try to see things from that perspective. She actually used the term "fascism" when trying to describe what she sees in the Republican actions. Hearing that from an a-political white conservative-leaning suburbanite was somewhat jaw-dropping actually.

I have a feeling that a lot of people, whatever their political stripe, saw the bagger action for what it was: terrorism and hostage-taking.

[Ikonoklast]

Just getting that can kicked down the road could be construed as a positive, as when the time comes to re-examine some of the spending issues, the bad actors in Congress who really caused this all to come to pass just might not be there anymore, and moving the debate leftward.

If this isn't an incentive to get out and vote in the most progressive, liberal candidates for Congress, I don't know what is.

[Cha]

(08-01-2011 12:12 AM)Ikonoklast Wrote:  Just getting that can kicked down the road could be construed as a positive, as when the time comes to re-examine some of the spending issues, the bad actors in Congress who really caused this all to come to pass just might not be there anymore, and moving the debate leftward.

If this isn't an incentive to get out and vote in the most progressive, liberal candidates for Congress, I don't know what is.

Really. It's a freakin' lifeline. Use it.

[nofurylike]

just read some of this, thanks, all.

thank you so much for posting this, jaxx. big help.