Greg Sargent: GOP on verge of huge, unprecedented political victory

[Drunken Irishman]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum..._blog.html

Quote:By all accounts, it looks like a deal is about to be announced in which the debt ceiling is hiked in exchange for the promise of major spending cuts, including to entitlements, totalling at least $2.4 trillion.

Anything can happen, but it apppears the GOP is on the verge of pulling off a political victory that may be unprecedented in American history. Republicans may succeed in using the threat of a potential outcome that they themselves acknowledged would lead to national catastrophe as leverage to extract enormous concessions from Democrats, without giving up anything of any significance in return.

...

The road that was taken is leading to a deal in which Dems are aggreeing to take huge amounts of money out of the economy when the recovery is shaky at best. It also seems to ensure that Dems will agree to entitlements cuts heading into an election where the GOP was supposed to be deeply vulnerable over their drive to end Medicare as we know it. Dems will promise to salvage victory in the form of “smart” entitlement reform. Maybe so. For now, it appears the GOP is on the verge of a huge and unprecedented victory.

I'm guessing Democrats will fight hard to prove they won this debate. But it's hard to see how anyone wins with this. The economy is DOA. Republicans have now neutralized their biggest problem heading into the 2012 presidential election: entitlement cuts and worse, Democrats failed to get an increase in revenue.

How many times did we hear, over the last four weeks, that Obama would not accept a deal without revenue increases?

This is a plan I hope Obama vetoes, but he won't. And he's going to have to explain why he went back on his word.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

What kind of entitlement cuts are we talking about?

[RoyGBiv]

(07-31-2011 02:53 PM)Proud Liberal Dem Wrote:  What kind of entitlement cuts are we talking about?

Primarily changing the way COLA is calculated and lowering payments to Medicare providers, the latter of which tends to have the effect of removing doctors from the pool of Medicare providers, making seniors trying to find a doctor more difficult.

The COLA calculation reform has been trumped up out of all proportion by the extreme left. Congress messes with COLA relatively often, and it is always eyed nervously, but it's never this "OMG!!!1PNOEIS! The WORLD IS ENDING" issue that some on the left have made it this time. The change that's being proposed this time is actually very subtle, based on purchase "substitutions" that react to out of the ordinary higher commodity prices in one sector, which all actually makes sense.

I know less about what they're considering to do to Medicare. I know what the Republicans want to do to it, but the Democrats aren't having any of that.

[jaxx]

Do you mean because that 'big deal' isn't the one being hashed out now? The one Boehner walked out on?
How do you go back on your word on a dead deal?

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-31-2011 02:58 PM)jaxx Wrote:  Do you mean because that 'big deal' isn't the one being hashed out now? The one Boehner walked out on?
How do you go back on your word on a dead deal?

When you sit there and say you won't accept any deal that doesn't include tax increases and then, in the end, accept just that, yeah, I think it's going back on your word.

[jaxx]

(07-31-2011 03:02 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 02:58 PM)jaxx Wrote:  Do you mean because that 'big deal' isn't the one being hashed out now? The one Boehner walked out on?
How do you go back on your word on a dead deal?

When you sit there and say you won't accept any deal that doesn't include tax increases and then, in the end, accept just that, yeah, I think it's going back on your word.

I disagree. Circumstances change.

[Born_A_Truman]

The GOP has put a gun to the head of the American people. Since their side doesn't care if it takes out the economy (so much the better to keep Obama from a 2nd term), nor do they care about seniors or the poor, or anyone other than the wealthy actually, they know if they don't back down they win.

[There Is No Spoon]

(07-31-2011 02:59 PM)Born_A_Truman Wrote:  The GOP has put a gun to the head of the American people. Since their side doesn't care if it takes out the economy (so much the better to keep Obama from a 2nd term), nor do they care about seniors or the poor, or anyone other than the wealthy actually, they know if they don't back down they win.

As one person described it - the Democrats are negotiating with terrorists.

[Eponine]

(07-31-2011 02:59 PM)Born_A_Truman Wrote:  The GOP has put a gun to the head of the American people. Since their side doesn't care if it takes out the economy (so much the better to keep Obama from a 2nd term), nor do they care about seniors or the poor, or anyone other than the wealthy actually, they know if they don't back down they win.

Well said.

[Drunken Irishman]

It doesn't matter. Any cuts can be spun negatively toward Obama and the Democrats. There is also no increase in revenue, which means it's solely a cutting plan and that is just bad economics. Ask Ronald Reagan. Obama and the Democrats have now moved to the right of Reagan on deficit spending.

Republicans held their breath until they got most of what they wanted. So the Democrats got a raise in the debt ceiling - something every president has been given for nothing in the past - and they gave up massive cuts that the Republicans have been pushing since Obama was elected president.

Does anyone really have faith that the Bush tax cuts won't be renewed when they're up next year? Of course they will. Republicans win. American and the Democrats lose. I'm tired of this story.

[Baltoman991]

(07-31-2011 03:00 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  It doesn't matter. Any cuts can be spun negatively toward Obama and the Democrats. There is also no increase in revenue, which means it's solely a cutting plan and that is just bad economics. Ask Ronald Reagan. Obama and the Democrats have now moved to the right of Reagan on deficit spending.

Republicans held their breath until they got most of what they wanted. So the Democrats got a raise in the debt ceiling - something every president has been given for nothing in the past - and they gave up massive cuts that the Republicans have been pushing since Obama was elected president.

Does anyone really have faith that the Bush tax cuts won't be renewed when they're up next year? Of course they will. Republicans win. American and the Democrats lose. I'm tired of this story.

Sorry DI, but I don't see it that way nor, as I've stated before, give up on Democrats or Obama in particular.

Look, don't make a deal, the country defaults and Obama is fucked royally. Doing it this way, IF IT'S TRUE, gives him a bit of wiggle room to lay the blame where any rational thinking person knows it belongs and thats the Repukes/Teabaggers.

As far as the Bush Tax cuts, they will be gone. Of that I have no doubt. The Republicans have NOTHING left to hold over the head of Obama when the time comes.

People giving up are why we're in the shape we're in and you're to strong a person to give up now. Fight for the man. Make your voice heard as I know you and others here will.

This deal sucks yes, but again, IF IT'S TRUE, he can beat the Republicans over the head with it for the next 15 months because they are the ones who are slashing SS and Medicare.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

Huge, unprecedented political victory? It's impossible to see how much of a boon this is going to be for the Republicans in next year's elections, however the better question is what can our side do to help/hinder their boon. Victories can be "Pyrrhic" too.

[PoliticalTiger]

I dunno ... maybe it's just me, but I prefer to wait to see what actually happens before forming an opinion instead of forming one based on what may happen.

[NJMaverick]

I have heard about the wolf once to often for me to care anymore.

[Cha]

And, whose fault is this? The Professional Whiners who got their suckers to stay home in 2010?

Smartypants has a reminder..

Quote:I think its a good time to remind ourselves what Michelle Obama said about her husband and our President.

Here's the thing about my husband: even in the toughest moments, when it seems like all is lost, Barack Obama never loses sight of the end goal. He never lets himself get distracted by the chatter and the noise, even if it comes from some of his best supporters. He just keeps moving forward.

And in those moments when we're all sweating it, when we're worried that the bill won't pass or the negotiation will fall through, Barack always reminds me that we're playing a long game here. He reminds me that change is slow — it doesn't happen overnight.

>the rest<
http://immasmartypants.blogspot.com/2011...-game.html

[Baltoman991]

(07-31-2011 03:13 PM)Cha Wrote:  And, whose fault is this? The Professional Whiners who got their suckers to stay home in 2010?

Smartypants has a reminder..

Quote:I think its a good time to remind ourselves what Michelle Obama said about her husband and our President.

Here's the thing about my husband: even in the toughest moments, when it seems like all is lost, Barack Obama never loses sight of the end goal. He never lets himself get distracted by the chatter and the noise, even if it comes from some of his best supporters. He just keeps moving forward.

And in those moments when we're all sweating it, when we're worried that the bill won't pass or the negotiation will fall through, Barack always reminds me that we're playing a long game here. He reminds me that change is slow — it doesn't happen overnight.

>the rest<
http://immasmartypants.blogspot.com/2011...-game.html

YES YES YES, Thank you Cha!!!

I said it earlier today, Barack Obama isn't giving in. We, (none of us here), the American people gave in when they put Obama in this situation in 2010. Thank you for your post.

People like Ed Schultz telling people to stay home, the over 600,000 in Wisconsin who decided Obama and the Democrats weren't worthy of their support and all the other assholes who blew off 2010 have NO FUCKING VOICE in this now. They caused it, they need to fucking change it in 2012 or it's only going to get worse.

[Born_A_Truman]

(07-31-2011 03:17 PM)Baltoman991 Wrote:  People like Ed Schultz telling people to stay home, the over 600,000 in Wisconsin who decided Obama and the Democrats weren't worthy of their support and all the other assholes who blew off 2010 have NO FUCKING VOICE in this now. They caused it, they need to fucking change it in 2012 or it's only going to get worse.

Yes!

[PoliticalTiger]

(07-31-2011 03:17 PM)Baltoman991 Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 03:13 PM)Cha Wrote:  And, whose fault is this? The Professional Whiners who got their suckers to stay home in 2010?

Smartypants has a reminder..

Quote:I think its a good time to remind ourselves what Michelle Obama said about her husband and our President.

Here's the thing about my husband: even in the toughest moments, when it seems like all is lost, Barack Obama never loses sight of the end goal. He never lets himself get distracted by the chatter and the noise, even if it comes from some of his best supporters. He just keeps moving forward.

And in those moments when we're all sweating it, when we're worried that the bill won't pass or the negotiation will fall through, Barack always reminds me that we're playing a long game here. He reminds me that change is slow — it doesn't happen overnight.

>the rest<
http://immasmartypants.blogspot.com/2011...-game.html

YES YES YES, Thank you Cha!!!

I said it earlier today, Barack Obama isn't giving in. We, (none of us here), the American people gave in when they put Obama in this situation in 2010. Thank you for your post.

People like Ed Schultz telling people to stay home, the over 600,000 in Wisconsin who decided Obama and the Democrats weren't worthy of their support and all the other assholes who blew off 2010 have NO FUCKING VOICE in this now. They caused it, they need to fucking change it in 2012 or it's only going to get worse.

You read my mind, Baltoman!

[PoliticalTiger]

(07-31-2011 03:13 PM)Cha Wrote:  And, whose fault is this? The Professional Whiners who got their suckers to stay home in 2010?

Smartypants has a reminder..

Quote:I think its a good time to remind ourselves what Michelle Obama said about her husband and our President.

Here's the thing about my husband: even in the toughest moments, when it seems like all is lost, Barack Obama never loses sight of the end goal. He never lets himself get distracted by the chatter and the noise, even if it comes from some of his best supporters. He just keeps moving forward.

And in those moments when we're all sweating it, when we're worried that the bill won't pass or the negotiation will fall through, Barack always reminds me that we're playing a long game here. He reminds me that change is slow — it doesn't happen overnight.

>the rest<
http://immasmartypants.blogspot.com/2011...-game.html

Yes, just what I was thinking. I can only imagine the whining going on at certain websites by people who decided to follow Ed "stay home and not vote to teach them a lesson" Shultz! I mean, those who sat on their hands and did nothing because their cake was not as big as they wanted need stop bitching and admit they they are just as much to blame for any "bad deal" that may come out of this as anybody.

But they won't. They'll keep whining and place all the blame on President Obama as usual because that's what they do, and I'll give 'em this - they do it damn good!

[KonaKane]

My Sunday isn't complete without a word or two from my Little Ray of Sunshine.

[Baltoman991]

BTW, wasn't Greg Sargent an ardent and outspoken Clinton supporter? Not that it matters but if it's the same guy then I'd expect this from him.

[Cha]

(07-31-2011 03:21 PM)Baltoman991 Wrote:  BTW, wasn't Greg Sargent an ardent and outspoken Clinton supporter? Not that it matters but if it's the same guy then I'd expect this from him.

From what I know of Greg Sargent..he's a pretty standup guy but nobody's perfect.

He has "appears" and "it looks like"..haven't we learned over the years to wait until something actually happens to react?

[Cha]

Oh good, it went through. It was acting like it wasn't posting and then I thought I lost it and came back to do it all over again.

Baltoman

I just can't give in to the negativity..it would be ridiculous.

[Drunken Irishman]

Well it doesn't matter who's to blame. In the end, the Democrats are the decision makers. They're the ones that will have to defend this bill.

Wanna know how I know we're on the bad side of this?

Even the creeps at FR are saying this is a big win for the Republicans. At least most of 'em. There are a few holdouts who think they were sold out, but a majority of 'em are feeling pretty good.

All it takes for me to know we got the shaft is by reading their positive posts about how they forced Obama to concede everything he wanted from the start.

[Baltoman991]

(07-31-2011 03:25 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  Well it doesn't matter who's to blame. In the end, the Democrats are the decision makers. They're the ones that will have to defend this bill.

Wanna know how I know we're on the bad side of this?

Even the creeps at FR are saying this is a big win for the Republicans. At least most of 'em. There are a few holdouts who think they were sold out, but a majority of 'em are feeling pretty good.

All it takes for me to know we got the shaft is by reading their positive posts about how they forced Obama to concede everything he wanted from the start.

Really? Because Freeperville is glowing tonight you think that puts Democrats on the wrong side?

Wow!!!!

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-31-2011 03:29 PM)Baltoman991 Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 03:25 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  Well it doesn't matter who's to blame. In the end, the Democrats are the decision makers. They're the ones that will have to defend this bill.

Wanna know how I know we're on the bad side of this?

Even the creeps at FR are saying this is a big win for the Republicans. At least most of 'em. There are a few holdouts who think they were sold out, but a majority of 'em are feeling pretty good.

All it takes for me to know we got the shaft is by reading their positive posts about how they forced Obama to concede everything he wanted from the start.

Really? Because Freeperville is glowing tonight you think that puts Democrats on the wrong side?

Wow!!!!

How many times have people used FR to show the extremes and compare it to the extremes of many liberal websites?

I remember during the budget talks earlier this year, a lot of liberals were saying how much the Democrats caved and the easy thing to do with their rhetoric was to reply back with a quote from FR showing the exact same disgust...but toward the Republicans.

You see, back then, I knew the Democrats were on the better side of things because the Republican base HATED the concessions.

This time around? Even they see it as a huge win for Republicans.

So tell me, what did Democrats gain in all of this? I want to know what Democrats and Obama gained outside the raising of the debt ceiling.

Because from my point of view, we've cut off our arms and legs to appease the Republicans, while asking them for little in return. Okay, so the country didn't default! Wow. Awesome. Doesn't change the fact there is nothing in the proposed plan to fix the economy. At least an increase in revenue, as was the case in the 80s and 90s, could have led to the potential of economic recovery. But alas, Democrats gave up that too!

[Cha]

(07-31-2011 03:25 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  Well it doesn't matter who's to blame. In the end, the Democrats are the decision makers. They're the ones that will have to defend this bill.

Wanna know how I know we're on the bad side of this?

Even the creeps at FR are saying this is a big win for the Republicans. At least most of 'em. There are a few holdouts who think they were sold out, but a majority of 'em are feeling pretty good.

All it takes for me to know we got the shaft is by reading their positive posts about how they forced Obama to concede everything he wanted from the start.

"..doesn't matter who's to blame."? Tell that to the professional whiners.

They're absolving themselves and gorging on blaming the President.

[Baltoman991]

(07-31-2011 03:41 PM)Cha Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 03:25 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  Well it doesn't matter who's to blame. In the end, the Democrats are the decision makers. They're the ones that will have to defend this bill.

Wanna know how I know we're on the bad side of this?

Even the creeps at FR are saying this is a big win for the Republicans. At least most of 'em. There are a few holdouts who think they were sold out, but a majority of 'em are feeling pretty good.

All it takes for me to know we got the shaft is by reading their positive posts about how they forced Obama to concede everything he wanted from the start.

"..doesn't matter who's to blame."? Tell that to the professional whiners.

They're absolving themselves and gorging on blaming the President.

Isn't it a sad country right now? Well, sad isn't really the right word I guess because I still wouldn't want to live anywhere else but how pathetic that those who put Obama in this situation are the ones screaming the loudest about this.

It does matter who gets blamed because for the whiners to be blaming Obama is simply bullshit. They know who is at fault when the look in the mirror every morning but none of them will ever own up to their mistake.

[Cha]

(07-31-2011 03:49 PM)Baltoman991 Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 03:41 PM)Cha Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 03:25 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  Well it doesn't matter who's to blame. In the end, the Democrats are the decision makers. They're the ones that will have to defend this bill.

Wanna know how I know we're on the bad side of this?

Even the creeps at FR are saying this is a big win for the Republicans. At least most of 'em. There are a few holdouts who think they were sold out, but a majority of 'em are feeling pretty good.

All it takes for me to know we got the shaft is by reading their positive posts about how they forced Obama to concede everything he wanted from the start.

"..doesn't matter who's to blame."? Tell that to the professional whiners.

They're absolving themselves and gorging on blaming the President.

Isn't it a sad country right now? Well, sad isn't really the right word I guess because I still wouldn't want to live anywhere else but how pathetic that those who put Obama in this situation are the ones screaming the loudest about this.

It does matter who gets blamed because for the whiners to be blaming Obama is simply bullshit. They know who is at fault when the look in the mirror every morning but none of them will ever own up to their mistake.

Maybe they don't think they made a "mistake" but it's a strategy with them? Get the country so loaded down with fascist idiots screwing everyone out of everything but the very rich and then: Viola! The country swings so far to the left that a president nader can be sniffing glue and still get in. They're not anymore into reality than the teabaggers on the right.

And, yeah, it does matter whose fault this is. We learn from history.

[KonaKane]

When you consider that the entire debt ceiling "crisis" is a deliberately manufactured one by the GOP, none of this much matters in the end. First we have to start changing our public dialogue.

Point number one: There is no debt ceiling crisis. It was raised 18 times under Ronald Reagan; nine times under George H. W. Bush; six times under Bill Clinton; and seven times under George W. Bush. All for political advantage, and the current one is no different except for the hyped, manufactured mayhem courtesy of the GOP and the lunatic Tea P wing.

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-31-2011 03:38 PM)KonaKane Wrote:  When you consider that the entire debt ceiling "crisis" is a deliberately manufactured one by the GOP, none of this much matters in the end. First we have to start changing our public dialogue.

Point number one: There is no debt ceiling crisis. It was raised 18 times under Ronald Reagan; nine times under George H. W. Bush; six times under Bill Clinton; and seven times under George W. Bush. All for political advantage, and the current one is no different except for the hyped, manufactured mayhem courtesy of the GOP and the lunatic Tea P wing.

Which makes the concessions even more mind-numbing! I agree with you. It's all manufactured and the Democrats have played right into the Republican's despair.

Really, that's what I'm having a hard time conceding with this entire talk. Republicans are using this debt ceiling to shake down the Democrats for stuff they normally couldn't get and it's working! They're going to get massive cuts. They're going to preserve the Bush tax-cuts at least through 2012. They're walking out of this with the ransom cash and there ain't a damn thing we can do about it.

THAT is frustrating and disappointing and sad and depressing all at the same time.

Ideally, Obama would call their bluff. He would veto this plan and tell the American people why he was doing it. Alas, he's not going to do it. He'll avert default, but in the end, we'll be fucked either way. The economy isn't going to improve with just cuts. It needs revenue increases, which is what happened in the 80s and 90s and both spurred economic recovery.

The status quo might technically be better than default, but not by much. It's still going to mean higher unemployment, a major deficit, massive debt and no prospects of anything getting better because Republicans won't negotiate or compromise with Democrats like they're so willing to do with Republicans.

Then what? Where is the end game here? Do we just hope the American people wise up and vote them out in 2012? That's a mighty big gamble and I think, with this compromise, Republicans will win the overall debate. They have successfully divided the Democratic base and you can blame the liberals and what not, but by conceding what they've conceded, Democrats have put themselves in a bad spot.

This deal would be a lot easier to accept if there was an increase in tax revenue. But that's not the case.

So again, I think Obama needs to veto it, tell the American people why he did it (he won't allow the Republicans to balance the budget on the backs of the poor and middle class) and then he could turn around and use the 14th amendment. Maybe it doesn't work and it blows up in his face. But from my point of view, this current deal is a bomb regardless. It's not going to save the economy. It's going to make ridiculous cuts that shouldn't be made in a time of economic uncertainty and worse, it's going to be a very tough sell not just to the base, but to average Americans.

Americans who don't want to hear their SS or medicare are going to be cut all the while rich people aren't asked to spend a dime to help us out of this problem.

It's just a bad deal all around. Which often happens when you hold a country hostage.

[Drunken Irishman]

I say it doesn't matter because, in the end, what's done is done. We can't go back to 2010 and force them to vote. They didn't vote and they're facing the consequences. It doesn't absolve the WH or Democrats of their sin, though, and that's by letting the Republicans dictate this entire debate.

It wasn't that long ago it looked like Obama had the Republicans by the neck and that isn't the case anymore.

[Baltoman991]

(07-31-2011 03:53 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  I say it doesn't matter because, in the end, what's done is done. We can't go back to 2010 and force them to vote. They didn't vote and they're facing the consequences. It doesn't absolve the WH or Democrats of their sin, though, and that's by letting the Republicans dictate this entire debate.

It wasn't that long ago it looked like Obama had the Republicans by the neck and that isn't the case anymore.

Lets just agree to disagree.

You want to lay all this at Obamas feet when you have the PL slamming him day in and day out. When you have the MSM spinning and twisting every fucking thing the man says and doesn't give Democrats the time of day and when you have lazy fucking American people who refuse to listen to the man when he speaks.

Sorry, I'll say again, this is Americas fault, not Obamas.

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-31-2011 04:05 PM)Baltoman991 Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 03:53 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  I say it doesn't matter because, in the end, what's done is done. We can't go back to 2010 and force them to vote. They didn't vote and they're facing the consequences. It doesn't absolve the WH or Democrats of their sin, though, and that's by letting the Republicans dictate this entire debate.

It wasn't that long ago it looked like Obama had the Republicans by the neck and that isn't the case anymore.

Lets just agree to disagree.

You want to lay all this at Obamas feet when you have the PL slamming him day in and day out. When you have the MSM spinning and twisting every fucking thing the man says and doesn't give Democrats the time of day and when you have lazy fucking American people who refuse to listen to the man when he speaks.

Sorry, I'll say again, this is Americas fault, not Obamas.

Not at all. Obama doesn't deserve all the blame. There is enough blame to go around with this clusterfuck. The problem I have with Obama & Democrats is that they've allowed the Republicans to steal the show and get a great deal of what they wanted, all the while conceding what was supposed to be the line in the sand when this debate started a few weeks ago.

The fact is, Republicans held out for what they wanted and they got it. The biggest issue in this entire debate was an increase in tax revenue. That was where Obama drew the line in the sand. He said any deal had to have an increase in tax revenue.

Well we gave it up. For what? Cuts, cuts, cuts. Cuts that won't benefit the economy. Cuts that will not even begin to touch the deficit.

That's hard to accept. I can blame the liberals who didn't vote for putting us in this position, but that doesn't mean the senate Democrats and the WH aren't guilty of giving too much in this debate.

And they are.

[Treestar]

I don't see it can possibly be a victory for the Republicans. They literally objected to any tax increases, even on the rich, forcing Democrats to agree to their cuts. They will suffer the consequences. The voters probably want to cut waste, and don't understand the default. But they can understand that Rs won't tax people with money, just ordinary people.

They didn't shut down any major government program, so for them that is a loss.

It's really a split down the middle compromise, with both sides having people who just can't see the other side as losing anything or their side as gaining anything. Just glass half empty half full thinking.

[Drunken Irishman]

I guess my biggest problem with this deal isn't necessarily the cuts. I don't think they'll be drastic enough to dramatically alter SS or medicare. They might actually make them more efficient.

My problem with this entire deal is that it does nothing to help our economy. So we don't default, at best, I think, we're looking at a scenario, as Sargent said, where unemployment stays at 9%. It's not going to get better because there is no government investment in the economy. Republicans aren't going to allow for more spending and now without an increase in tax revenue, what is going to turn the economy around?

That's the best case scenario out of this. The worst case is that we plunge right back into a recession and unemployment surges into the double-digits.

This is a point where the Democrats needed to stand their ground and they didn't.

[suzie]

Like Baltoman, I can't ever remember a positive thing Greg Sargent has said about Obama.

Look, in my heart, I don't really want Obama handling this. I want Lyndon Johnson, who was as mean, vindictive and downright hateful as any Republican, even any Tea Partier. But he's dead.

And LBJ was able to be the meanest SOB around because someone else, more personally like Obama, got elected and then was gone. We simply don't usually elect the meanie to be President. Which is why Cheney had to settle for Veep.

So Obama is never gonna be as heavy-handed as LBJ or Cheney, because we don't elect those guys to the top spot.

Hillary was never gonna be that heavy, because she was never gonna get elected.

And Obama is far better than Bill Clinton, who simply caved to Republicans and gave into really bad, really disastrous legislation. And who didn't have 2 wars and a million jobs a month disappearing when he took office. Who did have the massive demographic of the Baby Boomers in their highest paid working years and an enormous Tech boom contributing to the Treasury during his presidency.

I may disagree with Obama from time to time, but who would I like to have running things that's around now?

I don't have anyone better than Obama.

[KonaKane]

The nice guy never makes it far, if history is our teacher. His friends say he's too nice and giving away the store. His enemies, that he's a fascist dictating thief.

Still, he is the best we have.

[Drunken Irishman]

I don't want Obama to act mean. He doesn't even need to be LBJ. I have never, ever, ever questioned Obama's leadership, even when it looked its bleakest during the healthcare debate.

But this time, I question what he and the Democrats are doing. They are bending too far for the Republicans and I understand at least part of it. I get that Obama and Reid and Pelosi don't want us to default. But I think Obama holds the power of the 14th amendment, which I believe he needs to now use.

He has shown that he will compromise and work with the Republicans - but when it comes down to cutting without any revenue increases, he can't go ahead with it. It's a pledge he made just last week during his speech to the nation and he needs to stick to that.

Of course, it's not going to happen. Obama worked this deal out with the Republicans and then gave it to Reid. It's unfortunate, and it's something I can't agree with him on. Maybe I am wrong and maybe we'll see things turn around - but at the moment, I think he fucked up. It doesn't mean I think he's a bad president or doesn't deserve my support - but he is human and he, in my view, made a major mistake. I do not feel the economy will improve, especially with more cuts and I question when we'll ever see the removal of the Bush tax cuts.

I just think this whole mess sucks. And Obama maybe did the right overall thing, but he got to that point by giving away too much.

[Born_A_Truman]

The Bush tax cuts aren't part of this deal and will expire 12/2012.

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-31-2011 05:37 PM)Born_A_Truman Wrote:  The Bush tax cuts aren't part of this deal and will expire 12/2012.

Exactly what sucks the most about this deal. Since they're expiring at the end of 2012, the impact the added revenue would have won't be felt until 2013 and it's possible, at that point, Obama is leaving office.

The economy needs a boost NOW. Not a year from now and certainly not after the election. The increase of new revenue would have helped the country economically.

But alas, that's not in the plan. And because we're making cuts at a time where the economy is on shaky grounds, I'm concerned that we'll be worse off for it.

[jaxx]

Iraq is ending and that will show in 2012.

[Drunken Irishman]

I hope. We need something. If unemployment can even dip a percentage point between now and Nov. 2012, I think Obama has the election in the bag.

So there has to be something to kickstart the economy. Anything, really.

[RoyGBiv]

(07-31-2011 06:04 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  I hope. We need something. If unemployment can even dip a percentage point between now and Nov. 2012, I think Obama has the election in the bag.

So there has to be something to kickstart the economy. Anything, really.

Just as a tidbit of nothing but random musings...

Treasury has been floating some numbers in the midst of all this debt ceiling idiocy that are bizarre. They project growth at above 3% next year.

Now, that would be great, and it would almost certainly have the effect of aiding employment numbers, but no one I have read has a single clue how they're coming to this rationally. Growth is flat right now with a trend toward falling, no stimulus any longer, and coming spending cuts that will serve as a further drag. It's a genuine WTF!? moment.

But, letting my optimism slip in for a moment and knowing how the Obama administration has worked in the past, I am left wondering if there's not some sideways stimulus up someone's sleeve somewhere. I still don't think it could have the effect of stimulated 3% growth so soon, but if it does anything at all, it would help. I just can't think of what it might be.

[janedrake]

Quote:"I'm guessing Democrats will fight hard to prove they won this debate. But it's hard to see how anyone wins with this. The economy is DOA."

Actually, right now market futures are soaring, going into Monday's opening session. As I write this:

DJIA - up 176 points
Nasdaq - up 30.50
S&P - up 19.00

Monday's session is going to be a howlingly good day for 401k's, and for "bulls." Much as I suspected, once "the Street" was assured that the U.S.'s roof wasn't going to cave in, and that there was certainty that the teafraggers (gotta give it to Kathleen Parker for coining that term) wouldn't get to play this game again next year, that's all they needed. I predict the vital signs of the economy will become pretty stable from here - even in the midst of this Republican-created nonsense, the jobs report came in strong last week. Business reports were saying that companies want to hire, but not if the roof was going to cave in. Well, let's see if they mean it.

The Republicans, of course, will again threaten to shut down the government, but this whole episode has severely damaged their "credibility" in the eyes of the public. I would think they're aware there's only so many times you can threaten to sabotage the government before people stop following you and start yelling at you to sit down and STFU.

Barring yet another teafragger-created crisis, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the economy (meaning jobs, 401ks, etc.) will finish strong this year.

And a word about Sargent's article, it's this kind of "cue-the-blog-panic" article that I'm so sick of seeing. People see that kind of stuff and start running for the hills, rarely to return to find out any actual particulars of what actually happened.

[Cha]

(07-31-2011 09:40 PM)janedrake Wrote:  And a word about Sargent's article, it's this kind of "cue-the-blog-panic" article that I'm so sick of seeing. People see that kind of stuff and start running for the hills, rarely to return to find out any actual particulars of what actually happened.

Thanks for your word on Sargent's article, jane. Dead-eye!

[RoyGBiv]

(07-31-2011 09:40 PM)janedrake Wrote:  

Quote:"I'm guessing Democrats will fight hard to prove they won this debate. But it's hard to see how anyone wins with this. The economy is DOA."

Actually, right now market futures are soaring, going into Monday's opening session.

Futures and Asian markets are gaining because investors are moving the money they'd placed in "safe havens" on the fear of a US default and moving it back into traditional investments, the same ones they were in before the teabaggers in Congress started terrifying markets weeks ago with talk of wanting a default.

What happens tomorrow doesn't mean much long term. It's simply a reaction to the avoidance of default.

[There Is No Spoon]

(07-31-2011 10:26 PM)RoyGBiv Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 09:40 PM)janedrake Wrote:  

Quote:"I'm guessing Democrats will fight hard to prove they won this debate. But it's hard to see how anyone wins with this. The economy is DOA."

Actually, right now market futures are soaring, going into Monday's opening session.

Futures and Asian markets are gaining because investors are moving the money they'd placed in "safe havens" on the fear of a US default and moving it back into traditional investments, the same ones they were in before the teabaggers in Congress started terrifying markets weeks ago with talk of wanting a default.

What happens tomorrow doesn't mean much long term. It's simply a reaction to the avoidance of default.

Better than a sharp stick in the eye (market drops when it was expected to rise.)

At least one of us resisted the urge to point this out.

[RoyGBiv]

(07-31-2011 10:30 PM)There Is No Spoon Wrote:  Better than a sharp stick in the eye (market drops when it was expected to rise.)

True enough.

I'm sure I'll react with similar glee when the average daily temperature falls below 100 for a full week. Still gonna be damn hot.

Quote:At least one of us resisted the urge to point this out.

As long as there's one of us.

[janedrake]

(07-31-2011 10:26 PM)RoyGBiv Wrote:  

(07-31-2011 09:40 PM)janedrake Wrote:  

Quote:"I'm guessing Democrats will fight hard to prove they won this debate. But it's hard to see how anyone wins with this. The economy is DOA."

Actually, right now market futures are soaring, going into Monday's opening session.

Futures and Asian markets are gaining because investors are moving the money they'd placed in "safe havens" on the fear of a US default and moving it back into traditional investments, the same ones they were in before the teabaggers in Congress started terrifying markets weeks ago with talk of wanting a default.

What happens tomorrow doesn't mean much long term. It's simply a reaction to the avoidance of default.

You could be right, Roy, but I have a different point of view. The very fact that that money is moving back into the market is a strong sign. I've also seen some indications in the market of institutional managers discreetly stocking up on certain stocks, even through all this mess. Since you sound like you know the markets, you know that August is traditionally an extremely slow time, as the big money goes off for their Hamptons and European vacations. I would be very surprised to see, though, come the first week of September, that the market is not rallying, and that the jobs report is not stabilizing in an upward direction. As the saying goes, no one can tell what will happen next in the market, but with this tremendous "uncertainty" removed, I would predict that's going to have a positive effect on the market beyond tomorrow, and beyond this week. (Also, if it were just a simple reaction to this news, I think it would be much more cautious, and would look more like a "dead cat bounce." Right now, the market looks like it's set to open upwards of +200 points. That's pretty huge.)

Edited for wrong words/typos

[jaxx]

Thanks janedrake! I agree with your predictions, saw the Asian markets are responding too. Every one of them is up.

[janedrake]

Hi Jaxx - checked out the Asian markets, too, and you're absolutely right, they are soaring.