It's working.

[Drunken Irishman]

The Republicans are getting exactly what they want. They're ruining the Obama presidency. His approval ratings are tanking and without a solution, and the likelihood of default at its highest point in this debate, they're close to finishing what they started when he was elected.

If a deal is not reached, and one won't be, expect bleak approval ratings for congress and the president. It's going to get ugly, unfortunately.

And that's what's sad about this whole situation. Congress is using America as collateral damage to ending the Obama presidency. They'd rather have him be a one-termer by plunging this country into economic crisis than help save the country from unprecedented failure.

They'd rather end their political career to end Obama's. Make no mistake about it: if we default, all of Washington is going to be thrown out of office - from the president on down. Only those established and safe politicians, people like Nancy Pelosi who represent extremely lopsided ideological districts, will be safe.

But they don't care. It's been their mission from day one to kill the Obama presidency and, sadly, it's a distinct possibility if this country defaults. Americans might trust him by default over the Republicans, but when your approval ratings slip to 40%, and the worst has yet to come, you're in a bad situation.

We're at a fork in the road now, I guess and Obama's presidency is on the line. Maybe he needs to invoke the 14th amendment and if he doesn't, and this crisis isn't adverted, it'll be hard to foresee a scenario where he's not politically damaged to the point where 2012 is not only not a given - but also a potential loss.

I know, I know...go do something productive. Stop being such a buzzkill. You're too negative. You don't know what you're talking about. I've heard it and will continue to hear it. But at the moment, nothing is looking good. Not Obama's presidency, not America's future. We're at the darkest moment of our recent history and the ironic thing here is that we can get out of this so easily. All it takes is a one-sentence bill and it ain't going to happen.

All because Republicans want to end the Obama presidency.

[NJMaverick]

The President will not hint about it before hand, because there will be accusations that was his plan all along. However with the nation on the edge of the abyss President Obama will step up and do what needs to be done.

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-29-2011 02:55 PM)NJMaverick Wrote:  The President will not hint about it before hand, because there will be accusations that was his plan all along. However with the nation on the edge of the abyss President Obama will step up and do what needs to be done.

I hope you're right. I don't know if he can come back from the country defaulting. A deal needs to be made or he has to invoke the 14th amendment. The other option not only dooms America, but it potentially dooms his presidency.

[azmouse]

If the election was this year... maybe.

Americans have short memories and the election is 15 months away.

I'm going to have a good time this weekend. Go to the movies. Eat steak. Listen to awesome jazz. I suggest everyone find something very enjoyable to do to get through this long weekend. Nothing we can do about whatever is about to happen.

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-29-2011 03:05 PM)azmouse Wrote:  If the election was this year... maybe.

Americans have short memories and the election is 15 months away.

I'm going to have a good time this weekend. Go to the movies. Eat steak. Listen to awesome jazz. I suggest everyone find something very enjoyable to do to get through this long weekend. Nothing we can do about whatever is about to happen.

I guess it'll depend on the severity of this crisis. If it's as bad as they're saying, 15 months from now we'll be worse off economically than we are today.

That could play a huge role, sadly.

[KonaKane]

If you think this is treating Boner and his teabagging idiots better than Obama, it's not. They are getting even lower marks.

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-approval-num...02373.html

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-29-2011 03:13 PM)KonaKane Wrote:  If you think this is treating Boner and his teabagging idiots better than Obama, it's not. They are getting even lower marks.

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-approval-num...02373.html

I never said it was. Unfortunately, Obama's numbers are going south fast and while he will never reach the low Republicans are seeing at the moment, once he dips into the 30s, things are going to get hairy.

The point is, Republicans know what they're doing. They know the best way to kill his reelection is by having the country default. Is it a fool proof plan? Of course not, but it has a better chance of working than if a deal is reached.

Do I think it will work? I don't know. I think it would be foolish to think this isn't jeopardizing his presidency. But that's what they want.

[OptimistesMaddie]

(07-29-2011 03:13 PM)KonaKane Wrote:  If you think this is treating Boner and his teabagging idiots better than Obama, it's not. They are getting even lower marks.

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-approval-num...02373.html

The comments do not hold any of the Republicans responsible for what is happening. It pisses me off, they did this and everyone knows it.

[Baltoman991]

Tells you all you need to know about the American people. Poll after poll shows the American people are on Obamas side in this fight yet his numbers are dropping?

Something doesn't add up to me but hey, we've been duped by polls before haven't we?

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-29-2011 03:20 PM)Baltoman991 Wrote:  Tells you all you need to know about the American people. Poll after poll shows the American people are on Obamas side in this fight yet his numbers are dropping?

Something doesn't add up to me but hey, we've been duped by polls before haven't we?

I think they're dropping because America is just tired and fedup with all of Washington.

America also disapproves, overall, Obama's handling of this crisis. And that's to be expected because NOTHING has been accomplished.

It's the scorched earth policy of the GOP. Burn everything to the ground to the point where no one is left standing. Not even the president.

[BlueCaliDem4DFP]

(07-29-2011 03:20 PM)Baltoman991 Wrote:  Something doesn't add up to me but hey, we've been duped by polls before haven't we?

I totally agree. President Obama has raised $86 million already. Many polls have shown he has strong support from Liberals and Democrats. Yet his numbers are low?

I don't get it.

[Velleity]

I don't feel comfortable with this mess but I don't see Republicans profiting from it either.

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-29-2011 03:21 PM)Velleity Wrote:  I don't feel comfortable with this mess but I don't see Republicans profiting from it either.

I'm inclined to agree...but I'm not ready to believe.

I think there are a few Republicans, removed from this disaster, who could profit from this. I'd like to see some head-to-head polls right about now because approval polls don't mean a whole helluva lot if America disapproves of the Republican candidates as well.

But there hasn't been any polls released recently and those that were released are from earlier this month, when it appeared the debt ceiling would be raised.

[RoyGBiv]

There's an awful lot of wishful thinking occurring on both sides of the aisle and in all quarters of the populace. You see evidence of this in the strange outbursts lately from Republicans like McCain and Bartlett as well as the apparent cave to establishment Republican demands from Reid and Obama. People with a more realistic view of the world are seeing how all this nonsense has gone beyond the typical, and expected, dualistic ideological rhetoric straight to revolutionary radicalism. We are rapidly making our way through the looking glass. Anyone who believes we can come out of that, no matter their position, without having experienced a traumatic and potentially deadly paradigm shift is a lunatic.

And I mean "deadly" literally. There are people who will not eat who will become sicker who will loose all hope and who will die because of this mess, even in the brightest of end-game scenarios.

Yet here we sit, still praying for a miracle, actually believing it is coming. The 14th Amendment solution is not a cure-all even if it does prevent a complete collapse at the moment.

The white horse isn't coming. We may well get a solution that prevents the worst, but the damage has already been done on many fronts. In the political world, this all will have lingering fallout that follows us into 2012, short memories be damned, because the fallout will not have stopped falling by then. This isn't a situation of us all being pissed and then it ends. It's a situation of us all being pissed for awhile after which the reasons for the disaster that takes place later are forgotten, and in that scenario, the party in power will get the blame. In the public mind, the party that controls the White House is always the party in power.

[jaxx]

Everyone is upset with all this drama, but it doesn't have to be the end. The country has a bunch of throwbacks who want what they think is a small government where taxes don't exist, social safety nets are for fishing, marriage is between a white man and a white woman, christian is the only religion, and no damn Black man is going to run their country. They are not the majority in this country, they only think they are because the rightwing is petrified of them.

There are more sane people in this country who will see through this madness and take them out of the Congress. Work for it because this may matter more than anything since 1776 and 1861.

[Treestar]

No, I think the polls were showing the voters blame the Republicans for the mess.

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-29-2011 05:09 PM)Treestar Wrote:  No, I think the polls were showing the voters blame the Republicans for the mess.

We're not talking about the blame game. We're talking about overall approval. They can blame Republicans all they want, but they don't seem to approve of the job anyone is doing - Democrats, Republicans or the president.

That has to be a concern for the WH.

[There Is No Spoon]

I'll wait until the 15th round is over before I call this fight.

[Drunken Irishman]

It's low because he's losing support from independents. Democrats and liberals still support him, but you've got to think they make up, at best 30-35% of the voting electorate. That leaves roughly 65% of voters who aren't considered Democratic or liberal.

Of that, I'd say 30% are Republican and won't vote for Obama even if he picked Jesus as his running mate. That leaves about 35% who are up for grabs. They're the ones who delivered Obama a victory in 2008 and they'll be the ones who deliver Obama the victory again in 2012 (or cause him to lose).

Right now, I'd wager a majority of those 35%ers don't like the job Obama is doing and it's sagging his poll numbers. The good news is that independent voters are very fickle. One month they can turn on you and the next they'll love you.

So he definitely can win 'em back and approval ratings don't have much to do with head-to-head polls.

An independent might not like the job Obama is doing, however, compared to the potential of a Romney presidency, they may support him.

It was that way in 2004 with Bush. A lot of people didn't like the job he was doing, but they didn't like the idea of a Kerry presidency any better and felt more comfortable supporting Bush.

[BlueCaliDem4DFP]

(07-30-2011 12:30 AM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  An independent might not like the job Obama is doing, however, compared to the potential of a Romney presidency, they may support him.

It's sad that people forget so easily what state this country was in when Pres. Obama was inaugurated. They're so impatient, expecting him to fix in less than three years what took Duh-bya eight years to destroy.

And then they don't seem to see how he has to work with an unprecedented obstructionists GOP minority that doesn't seem to understand they're in the minority the way they demand things, and a not very helpful Democratic Caucus who've already showed him they have no qualms going against him even when they know he wants to keep a campaign promise (voting down funds to close Gitmo in May 2009).

[Blue_Roses]

The American people are not all stupid. I think the low approval ratings are to be expected with the fear and frustration. It's more of a way of saying, enough of this crap. It's obvious they are more pissed at congress.

[NJMaverick]

but it's always darkest before the dawn. When President Obama steps up and uses the 14th Amendment to save the nation for the tea bagger congress, he will come out smelling like roses.

[Drunken Irishman]

(07-30-2011 06:31 AM)NJMaverick Wrote:  but it's always darkest before the dawn. When President Obama steps up and uses the 14th Amendment to save the nation for the tea bagger congress, he will come out smelling like roses.

It's also darkest right before it fades to black.

haha, just playin' - but this is getting ridiculous. Nothing is happening and we're creeping even closer to the deadline.

I also have big doubts Obama would invoke the 14th amendment. That just isn't his style.

So, ultimately, I think the following will happen:

Reid's plan will not get off the ground. At the last second, the senate will modify Boehner's bill, giving it some additions so it will pass, and then they'll send it back to the House, where it'll pass and Obama will sign it.

A lot of people are going to be upset. A lot. Prepare for it because that's a potential outcome in all of this.

[DFW]

I also give that a good chance.

The one glaring thing I see is that so far NO ONE has taken any bold, decisive steps in this whole mess.

There will be screams and howling if Obama invokes the 14th Amendment, but all he has to say is that Congress was so mired in its own quicksand that someone had to act, and his oath of office mandated and required him to do so.

Fox will try to portray him as assuming dictatorial powers, ignoring what they championed in Cheneybush. So, fine, then he should not stop with the budget, but also instruct Holder to intensify the investigation of illegal activity by Murdoch companies in the USA, and act decisively if proof is found.

I also suggest that Obama instruct Panetta to start closing down Defense installations of questionable strategic value in solidly red states and districts, and say he was being fiscally conservative in keeping with the wishes of the elected representatives of those districts. This would not be a dangerous precedent. Cheneybush played by the same rules. Cheneybush didn't get their second term by playing nice or fair. They got it by being assholes and cheating. I'm not saying Obama needs to resort to being an asshole or cheating, but playing hardball for once might be somewhat more productive than seeking consensus with a hungry great white shark that is only interested in eating you.

[suzie]

In the depths of the Bush-Cheney years, when people really were pretty scared to voice opinions and Rove was talking about a generation of Republican, I read a column by someone who talked about just how awful things were. But he said that he remembered that "When things are going well for them, Republicans always overreach".

I remembered that as events started going bad for Republicans after 2005. I think it's the same now--they won in 2010 and then they overreached.

They had the chance to make Obama take the entire blame for the bad economy and suddenly, due to all this nonsense over a simply procedure, they've divvied up that responsibility with him.

Overreach.

[Drunken Irishman]

And I know that sounds negative and all, but I think it's a likely scenario on two-fronts:

1) Neither party really wants the country to default. At least not the old guard of the Republican Party. They've got too much invested in Wall Street for that to happen.

2) Unfortunately, Republicans are likely to let it default entirely out of spite. Obama isn't. Obama will sign a more Republican-leaning bill if it means we don't default, consequences be damned because the outcome and reality will be far worse if we do default than make some pointless cuts that only give the illusion of being massive (kind of like when the budget debate ended in the last minute due to a compromise of cuts that weren't really all that massive).

To be sure, I don't think Obama would agree to a balanced budget amendment, that would go, but the modified version of this bill would give a decent compromise and force the Republican's hands: they either accept these cuts and we don't default or they reject a truly bipartisan bill in the House and are left explaining why they did it to the average American people.

Boehner doesn't want that.