Election timeline...

[Drunken Irishman]

I know the media will be poring every polling report to find some trend to report on, but don't be surprised if we enter a pretty dead period between now and the time Romney announces his VP and the Republicans kickoff their convention.

We've already hit about the midway point between when the primaries started and the November election, which means Romney's numbers most likely are improving because his base is coalescing around him, which explains why the numbers have tightened a bit nationally. However, I don't anticipate a huge jump, either way, for a while now. Obama's lead might inch upward, or Romney might overtake him, but ultimately, the race should remain pretty stable.

So, all the talk of jobs reports and the unemployment, that means little. Unless the jobs report is massively bad, as in we barely clear growing jobs or we actually lose jobs in a month, or the unemployment spikes by more than .1-2%, I don't think the impact they'll have on this race will be much. Obama's numbers aren't going to worsen or improve because the unemployment rate is 8.3 instead of 8.2. That's all trivial, under the radar stuff the media likes to suggest makes a difference but really, it doesn't. It only becomes a concern if it leaps above 8.5%, which is unlikely between now and November.

Now, who knows what the healthcare ruling will have on the election. I could see Obama taking a hit for it or his numbers not moving at all. It's even possible, if the court upholds it, his numbers improve a bit since it will be played up in the media as a win. But this is something we haven't seen in presidential politics before and certainly could offer a June Surprise. Still, I don't anticipate a dramatic shift - nothing like what you could see from a bad debate performance, a fantastic convention or strong economic downturn.

That leaves the conventions.

In '08, Obama never received a convention bump because the McCain team actually did one thing right during the entire campaign and that was announce his running mate the afternoon AFTER Obama gave his amazing speech in Denver. It blunted any momentum they could have gained out of that convention and allowed the campaign a chance to climb back in the polls. If you look at Gallup's numbers during the convention, you could see a gradual increase of support in the head-to-head against McCain and the decision to announce his VP pick that next day leveled the surge.

Then you had the Republican Convention and McCain was able to get a nice bump out of that until the economic collapse and Palin stuck her foot in her mouth one too many times.

Unlike four years ago, the Democrats will have the last word. The GOP will use their convention to hammer Obama and I'm sure they'll get a bump out of it, even Kerry received a modest bump in '04, but Kerry also held his convention a month before Bush held his, so, that allowed for a bump to sustain a bit and it did - Kerry led in most polls until the Republican Convention at the end of August.

Having the convention in July was a good move. I know many were/are critical of the move, but had Kerry held the convention only a week or so before the Republican Convention, the bump, and sustained support he sees, probably doesn't happen and who knows how big the lead Bush gets out of his convention, assuming Kerry doesn't sustain a lead in July and August like he did in '04 without the convention being held where it was.

So, this year's GOP Convention ends on August 30th. The Democratic Convention begins on the 3rd. That's only three days - two of which come during the weekend - for Romney's final speech to make an impression. And then the Democrats get a turn to hammer Romney, and they will, while also displaying Obama's strengths. Obama will give his speech at Bank of America Stadium on September 6th, almost two months to election day.

Romney won't have anything to blunt the potential boost in ratings Obama sees, like McCain did in '08. Now, this is just conjecture on my part, but if Obama is tied, or behind by a respectable margin, after the GOP convention, I think he can balloon his lead considerably after the Democrats meet.

That should carry through the debates and I have faith in Obama that he'll beat the snot out of Romney in the debates.

So, this summer should be uneventful, but if the numbers do stay stable, and Romney can't gain the lead by the time the Republicans meet at the end of August, even if he gets a bump in the polls, I think this race will pretty much be decided in Obama's favor.

We'll see, though.

[azmouse]

I'll looking forward to the Democratic convention as much as I am the election in Nov. Should be an awesome show!

[jaxx]

Me too. I love conventions. From the time I was a little kid and they put them on tv I haven't missed one.

[Drunken Irishman]

Me three! They're fun (well, the Democratic ones, I doubt I'll watch the GOP mess).

[jaxx]

I watch the repubs too, I want to see what they're up to. This one I wouldn't miss for anything. I hope Ron Paul acts up and makes it a circus.

[Drunken Irishman]

I can't do it. I did sneak a peek at McCain's speech four years ago and laughed at how awkward and amateur it was. I remember some people heckling him and thinking how big of a disaster that video board behind him was. Then Andrea Mitchell started going off on how great the speech was and Chris Matthews called it the best speech of his life and I was left wondering if they watched the same speech I did. I mean, it wasn't bad, certainly not gaffe-filled, but it was rushed and at the end, with the balloons falling, it was overwhelming to a degree as he shouted "STAND UP" over and over again.

Eh. in the eye of the beholder, I guess...

[pappy]

(06-13-2012 11:12 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  I can't do it. I did sneak a peek at McCain's speech four years ago and laughed at how awkward and amateur it was. I remember some people heckling him and thinking how big of a disaster that video board behind him was. Then Andrea Mitchell started going off on how great the speech was and Chris Matthews called it the best speech of his life and I was left wondering if they watched the same speech I did. I mean, it wasn't bad, certainly not gaffe-filled, but it was rushed and at the end, with the balloons falling, it was overwhelming to a degree as he shouted "STAND UP" over and over again.

Eh. in the eye of the beholder, I guess...

I'm with you DI. It's hard to stomach all the vileness that the Republican's have embraced.

I am inclined, however, to give Andrea and Chris some slack. Andrea has to go home to Alan after work and Chris has that tingly problem with his leg with all things political. Give em a break!