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**Drunken Irishman** · 06-07-2012, 03:05 AM

No mention of this poll in the MSM.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/do...plines.pdf

Some interesting crosstabs. Probably the most important, outside the whole leading thing, is likability & favorable ratings.

Obama has a 47% favorable rating. Romney's is only 39%.

In terms of likability, and this is a big one...

32% like Obama a lot. Only 13% say the same about Romney.
31% like Obama somewhat. The same for Romney.
27% dislike Obama. 35% dislike Romney.

The 'likes a lot' category is what hurts Romney the most. When coupling 'like a lot' with 'somewhat', Obama is liked by 63% - Romney only 44%. Not even a majority of America likes Romney.

Another important factor: 48% of Americans believe Obama will either probably win or definitely win. Only 25% say the same about Romney. Politics is about perception. If the people think you're going to win, you're going to win.

But interesting this poll gets hardly any mention and it's not even included in the RCP average. It should be. But once again, another poll shows Obama beating Romney. There is no recent poll now, with Rasmussen having the race tied (as of the 6th, this might change by the time you read this post), that has Romney ahead at the posting of this. So...

**suzie** · (This post was last modified: 06-07-2012 05:55 AM by suzie.)

You're absolutely correct about the likability, DI.

Also, I think people see how hard Obama is working as president, even if they may disagree with him on a thing or two.

Mitt Romney just isn't likable--at all.

**TheNewMe** · 06-07-2012, 05:36 PM

That's the funny thing I read during the Republican primaries - The more people learned about the different candidates the less they liked them. The first one I remember reading this about was Tim Pawlenty.

Did the republicans have ANY likeable candidates?

***There Is No Spoon*** · 06-07-2012, 05:53 PM

Also,

**Drunken Irishman** · 06-07-2012, 11:58 PM

Another day and RCP hasn't added it to their average. But they did make sure to add the FOX News poll that shows the race at a 43-43 tie. I'm skeptical of those results as, like the CNN poll, Obama's approval is far out-pacing his polling total (his approval/disapproval in the FOX poll is 49-45 - yet he's polling six points worse? Not buying it.

***There Is No Spoon*** · 06-08-2012, 07:37 AM

(06-07-2012 11:58 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote: Another day and RCP hasn't added it to their average. But they did make sure to add the FOX News poll that shows the race at a 43-43 tie. I'm skeptical of those results as, like the CNN poll, Obama's approval is far out-pacing his polling total (his approval/disapproval in the FOX poll is 49-45 - yet he's polling six points worse? Not buying it.

It is included on the graph I posted - which you can customize to include whatever pollsters you prefer. Frankly, Pew has Obama up 49 - 42 and I hold their polls in higher regard than most, so there's that.

**sandnsea** · 06-08-2012, 07:24 AM

Interesting items in that poll. First it's a poll of Americans, not voters or likely voters. The demographics they've got seem a bit off to me, but maybe not for the general public. They've only got 18% at 65 and older, 21% 18 - 29. That might be the US demographic, but I don't think it's an accurate representation of voters. It has 32% Democrats, which makes the numbers a little scary until you consider it also has 36% from the south. In any event, I think the fact that it isn't voters or likely voters is the reason it's not included in any of the polling averages.

**Drunken Irishman** · 06-08-2012, 10:13 PM

(06-08-2012 07:24 AM)sandnsea Wrote: Interesting items in that poll. First it's a poll of Americans, not voters or likely voters. The demographics they've got seem a bit off to me, but maybe not for the general public. They've only got 18% at 65 and older, 21% 18 - 29. That might be the US demographic, but I don't think it's an accurate representation of voters. It has 32% Democrats, which makes the numbers a little scary until you consider it also has 36% from the south. In any event, I think the fact that it isn't voters or likely voters is the reason it's not included in any of the polling averages.

The 18% for 65 and older is about the level it was in '08 (23% four years ago, however, that clumps 60 and older, so, I think it works out). 18-29 was actually 18% in '08, so, 21% is probably a bit generous. Still, the differences shouldn't alter the overall poll numbers too much.

As for them polling 32% of Democrats, Rasmussen has Democratic affiliation at 33.8% nationally in May (though behind Republican affiliation by about two-points, which I find highly suspect since Republicans haven't held an advantage in voter affiliation in a generation).