I think it's pretty clear Rasmussen shouldn't be trusted...

[Drunken Irishman]

When you're that far out of every other poll, you're wrong. It's just that simple. The odds of Rasmussen being right and every other poll, from Gallup to IBD being wrong is astronomical. It just doesn't work that way. Between Rasmussen & the AP poll, there is a 16 point swing!

Even Gallup now shows Obama in the lead.

[sandnsea]

Note the difference between registered voters and likely voters, and the polls of all Americans which become rarer as time goes on. Likely Voters will probably show a swing towards Romney because Republicans are always more likely to say they'll vote, just out of habit. Democrats will always be more ambivalent. I think by October we will see a lot less Republican likely voters because the evangelicals will stay home and probably start saying so later in the year. Democrats will get their shit together, even the left. Although the campaign has really got to do something about the Ron Paul "liberals". So annoying when they show up and say shit like Obama hasn't kept his promises. I think they were high and envisioned promises he never made.

[Velleity]

(05-12-2012 02:49 PM)sandnsea Wrote:  Note the difference between registered voters and likely voters, and the polls of all Americans which become rarer as time goes on. Likely Voters will probably show a swing towards Romney because Republicans are always more likely to say they'll vote, just out of habit. Democrats will always be more ambivalent. I think by October we will see a lot less Republican likely voters because the evangelicals will stay home and probably start saying so later in the year. Democrats will get their shit together, even the left. Although the campaign has really got to doi something about the Ron Paul "liberals". So annoying when they show up and say shit like Obama hasn't kept his promises. I think they were high and envisioned promises he never made.

Bottom line: if we turn out to vote we win.

[sandnsea]

(05-12-2012 03:58 PM)Velleity Wrote:  

(05-12-2012 02:49 PM)sandnsea Wrote:  Note the difference between registered voters and likely voters, and the polls of all Americans which become rarer as time goes on. Likely Voters will probably show a swing towards Romney because Republicans are always more likely to say they'll vote, just out of habit. Democrats will always be more ambivalent. I think by October we will see a lot less Republican likely voters because the evangelicals will stay home and probably start saying so later in the year. Democrats will get their shit together, even the left. Although the campaign has really got to doi something about the Ron Paul "liberals". So annoying when they show up and say shit like Obama hasn't kept his promises. I think they were high and envisioned promises he never made.

Bottom line: if we turn out to vote we win.

Yep. What's annoying about these polls is the way they're manipulated to keep the appearance of a horse race, which I think does affect the "herd". I think the polls are as much to keep viewers for the media as they are for the benefit of the campaign. The most interesting polls are the regional, which the media rarely talks about. Then the country might realize we were never against Obama. The south was/is by such a large margin that it skews the polls drastically. I think it would make a difference if more people realized that.

[KonaKane]

Rasmussen has long been known as a right-leaning pollaganda service. I didn't know this was news.

[There Is No Spoon]

Saw a good article about this linked to on Reddit. Author pointed out differences in methodology - biggest being the "likely" voter thing, the other bigger issue is how Rasmussen does land line only polling and estimates correction ratios, whereas Gallup does 600 land line and 400 cell phone with a presumably less severe correction factor. One thing is for sure, a 15 point gap with +/- 3% error margins show that somebody fucked up or is cheating. I'll assume that Rasmussen is attempting to prevent republicans from getting discouraged. As far as in concerned, it's criminal what they are doing.