Mixed economic news muddles recovery potential

[Drunken Irishman]

Tomorrow, the big monthly jobs report will be released. Based on economic news this week, it's uncertain what that report will say. This week, with the lead up to the report, there were some positive indicators that the economy is not slowing down, however, there were other indicators - unemployment, slower-than-expected growth in the service sector, and worse-than-expected retail sales - that suggest it might be stalling.

The uncertainty has led to an up and down stock market this week - with the DOW peaking at its highest levels since '07, but also staying most days in the red. The sell off today, in anticipation of the jobs report, suggests Wall Street is expecting a pretty negative jobs report.

The ADP released their jobs report, which showed an underwhelming 119,000 jobs gained, which would be dramatically less than the 201,000 revised total from the ADP in March. Their report indicates a very stagnant market, though, it's important to point out that the government numbers are separate of the ADP's and will be released tomorrow.

So, it's entirely possible, as some have speculated, they're off. That's happened before. Economists believe we added 168,000 jobs in April, which would be a solid improvement on last month and alleviate fears that the market is slowing.

That's the magic number. The expectation is 168,000 and unemployment staying at 8.2. If we get that tomorrow, that's pretty good - not great, but good. Anything worse, and, I guess, it depends on how worse. If we can stay above 150,000, though, I think the narrative won't be entirely negative.

Anything higher, and the closer the number gets to 200,000, the better. Of course, last month, the expectation was that we would gain 200,000 new jobs in March and they woefully overestimated those gains.

Hopefully they didn't again this month and instead underestimated.

[There Is No Spoon]

Washington Monthly Wrote:Net new jobs up 115,000, with the unemployment rate down a tick at 8.1% (but with slighly lower workforce participation, which makes it a wash). A lot of indicators basically flat. The best news is upward revisions of the March net new jobs number from 120k to 154k, and of the February number from 240k to 259k. I would note that the “disappointing” March jobs figure now comes in at above the “magic number” of 150k that Nate Silver has suggested would be necessary monthly to put the president in a strong position for re-election.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/politic...037104.php

Dunno - gonna call this one a "neutral" month due to the upward revision of March and assumption April will see same.

[Peacetrain]

Wait and see I guess...the Moodys guy said that the reason for the downward push in unemployment is that the older people who were unemployed (nine states I guess so far) their unemployment benefits have run out and they are now retiring.. the work force is contracting with us baby boomers coming out.. and that will continue.

[Drunken Irishman]

Neutral is too kind of a word. This was a bad jobs report. It shows that we are in trouble economically and with government inaction, expect it to get a lot worse - which is exactly what the Republicans want. 115,000 jobs is abysmal for a post-recovery boom. Even with the revised numbers, we once again woefully missed the expectations, which had been 168,000. I hate to say it, and maybe it changes, but the growth we're seeing now monthly is almost as dismal as George H.W. Bush's when he lost in 1992. We'll keep growing, just officially keeping us out of a recession, but the narrative is being set: the economy has stalled and is sinking. If that continues into the summer, if we can't get at least one or two more positive reports by August, I'll say it, and I hate saying it, but it's very likely Obama loses in November.

I think it's about time I pull away for a bit. I've got too much investment in this and it's killing me. I was literally sick when I saw that the numbers were this bad for April. At this rate, I'm going to start preparing for a loss in November. It might not happen, of course, and it very well may not happen, but I see no evidence the economy is getting better and no evidence it's not getting worse. 115,000, whether it will be revised upward next month, suggests things are getting bad out there again. I said it in my original post and it's true: anything less than 150,000, on average, pretty much does Obama in.

In the minds of Americans, whether the government revises their numbers or not, we're on two months now with less than 150,000 jobs gained. We have six more job reports until the election. Maybe two months before perception sets on the economy one way or another (most believe American perception of the economy is built out of the summer months). If we're not back to growing 150,000 jobs by the June jobs report (so, that would be released in July), it's going to be very, very difficult for Obama to win. He would have to buck nearly every single historical trend to win reelection. If we get back to that point, then Romney is in trouble and will have to buck some trends of his own to win.

I guess we'll see. But color me very disappointed right now. Yet another jobs report that misses the prediction mark by a huge amount.

[jaxx]

(05-04-2012 12:37 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  Neutral is too kind of a word. This was a bad jobs report. It shows that we are in trouble economically and with government inaction, expect it to get a lot worse - which is exactly what the Republicans want. 115,000 jobs is abysmal for a post-recovery boom. Even with the revised numbers, we once again woefully missed the expectations, which had been 168,000. I hate to say it, and maybe it changes, but the growth we're seeing now monthly is almost as dismal as George H.W. Bush's when he lost in 1992. We'll keep growing, just officially keeping us out of a recession, but the narrative is being set: the economy has stalled and is sinking. If that continues into the summer, if we can't get at least one or two more positive reports by August, I'll say it, and I hate saying it, but it's very likely Obama loses in November.

I think it's about time I pull away for a bit. I've got too much investment in this and it's killing me. I was literally sick when I saw that the numbers were this bad for April. At this rate, I'm going to start preparing for a loss in November. It might not happen, of course, and it very well may not happen, but I see no evidence the economy is getting better and no evidence it's not getting worse. 115,000, whether it will be revised upward next month, suggests things are getting bad out there again. I said it in my original post and it's true: anything less than 150,000, on average, pretty much does Obama in.

In the minds of Americans, whether the government revises their numbers or not, we're on two months now with less than 150,000 jobs gained. We have six more job reports until the election. Maybe two months before perception sets on the economy one way or another (most believe American perception of the economy is built out of the summer months). If we're not back to growing 150,000 jobs by the June jobs report (so, that would be released in July), it's going to be very, very difficult for Obama to win. He would have to buck nearly every single historical trend to win reelection. If we get back to that point, then Romney is in trouble and will have to buck some trends of his own to win.

I guess we'll see. But color me very disappointed right now. Yet another jobs report that misses the prediction mark by a huge amount.

"115,000 jobs is abysmal for a post-recovery boom"

" I said it in my original post and it's true: anything less than 150,000, on average, pretty much does Obama in."

" it's going to be very, very difficult for Obama to win"

NO COMMENT.

[Drunken Irishman]

And I know I sound negative and that most economists aren't as negative as I am. They'll tell you the revised numbers mean things aren't as bad as initially thought and that the warmer winter led to more hiring in January & February at the expense of March & April. I get that. I get that they're confident we'll bounce back. That's my concern. The economists have been just so badly wrong on these jobs reports, on their expectations and predictions, that I can't trust them. I want to trust them. But when they all say, in April, we'll gain 168,000 new jobs and we miss that by 53,000, we've got a problem.

So, I guess, only time will tell if they're right or wrong. But I hate waiting another freaking month for a jobs report, just to see it woefully miss expectations again. Especially when the media will now use this to further their assault against Obama.

[Drunken Irishman]

Don't comment, but it's true, jaxx. These are not good numbers. I hope they change, but dammit, these numbers are barely keeping our head above water. I think we need more than that.

[Drunken Irishman]

This is how I feel...feel free to slap me.

[pappy]

(05-04-2012 01:28 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  This is how I feel...feel free to slap me.

What Kona said!

Oh yea and also

[KonaKane]

You seriously need to unclench, bro.

[There Is No Spoon]

[azmouse]

Chill out.


I'll bet you this nickel I found in the sofa cushions (I didn't find $10,000 - I'm not as rich as Willard) that Obama wins by many percentage points in November.