Economists predict President will lose

[Drunken Irishman]

Quote:Yale economist Ray Fair, a pioneer in the field of forecasting presidential elections on the basis of economic data, predicts that [the President] is in deep trouble against any candidate the [opponent] nominate. He projects that [the President] will lose, with 49% of the vote. Granted, Fair's model has a 2% margin of error, making the race a cliffhanger. But that's still a long fall from where the President stands now.

...

But hey, what if the economy gets better? Wouldn't that buoy [the President's] chances? Well, yes, of course. But don't count on that happening. In February the Blue Chip Economic Indicators poll found that 33 of 49 economists revised their 1996 growth forecasts down vs. their January expectations. Only five revised their forecasts higher. There's even some dire talk of recession, which would sink [the President] as surely as the 1980 recession swamped Carter. Ed Yardeni, chief economist of securities firm C.J. Lawrence, believes there's a 60% chance the economy is tumbling into recession right now.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/f.../index.htm

Sigh!

Oh wait. What? That's about Clinton and it's from 1996?

My bad. Interesting parallels, maybe? Ray Fair's model actually puts Obama at 50.3% - so, roughly a very, very, very narrow favorite. So, better than Clinton was at in '96 with his initial model.

[Peacetrain]

Oh DI you are a stinker... I was getting ready to come in here with my hair on fire.. You got me

[azmouse]

Thank gawd that isn't about Pres Obama. It made me want to kick someone, ya know?

[kahuna]

[DFW]

When he spoke at the 2000 Democratic convention, Clinton reminded everyone that Republicans were screaming what a disaster it would be for the economy if a Democrat became president in 1992. When Clinton wryly noted that "time had not been kind to their predictions," the crowd let out a roar that shook the ground.

In 1996, Clinton not only won, but buried Bob Dole.

This time, the Republicans are pouring WAY more money into the race thanks to their own custom-made Supreme Court ruling, but I think most of it will be for the purpose of keeping Congress hostile to President Obama, whose re-election at this point does not seem to be in peril.

[sandnsea]

GOP Presidents since 1960: Nixon, Reagan, Bush and Bush. Candidates: Goldwater, Ford, Dole, McCain and Romney.

That's a goddamn comedy routine right there. And what it says about our country. Ugh. Embarrassing.