Electoral Map Breakdown 2012

[Drunken Irishman]

The electoral map breakdown is back for a new year and we've got a good amount of new polls that show some changes in the race since the last, and final, breakdown of 2011.

The latest changes:

Arizona has solidified more Romney with a new Behavior Research Center poll showing him leading there by five points (their last poll had Obama leading by five). His lead was also extended because I dropped a PPP poll from April that had Romney up only four points. Still, this is an under-polled state and Obama's deficit margin is only about 6.5 points - so, it's definitely a swing state.

Florida has shifted back toward the Romney camp since it was a tie last month. However, this is mostly due to my dropping two polls from October (one had Obama by two and another had it a tie). I should point out that Romney's lead there is an insignificant .77% - which makes this state a statistical tie.

Also, Quinnipiac has polled this race twice in the month of January alone and their latest poll had Obama improving, as he was down three in their last poll and is now tied at 45% apiece with Romney.

Michigan remains the same margin for Obama, though that's because I dropped two polls - one that had Obama leading by 11. The latest poll, released yesterday, has him leading by eight there, which is an improvement from the last poll released by the same organization that had Obama trailing Romney by five. But because other polls were dropped due to being outdated, Obama's lead about 1.5 here - though, I suspect it's bigger.

Minnesota has solidified for Obama. His lead went from six in the last average to eight today - with a new poll showing Obama with a ten point lead there.

North Carolina still remains a tie, even though Obama led by one in the most recent poll. This is all because I dropped a poll from September/October that had Obama leading by one - so it evens out.

Ohio remains marginally strong for Obama. His current average lead there is about three points. In the latest spreadsheet, I dropped an October poll that had the race tied and another that had Obama leading by four and added one that had him leading by one.

Pennsylvania saw improvement for Obama, though only by one point. I should point out, though, that the latest poll there has Obama leading by ten.

So, that's the look at the start of the new year. You can find the spreadsheet here.

Overall, there hasn't been much change in the electoral college. Obama leads Romney with 286 electoral votes to 237 (270 needed to win), with 15 (North Carolina) undecided.

Obama is doing a tad worse than in the last update, but that's because Florida, as I mentioned above, went from undecided to very, very weak Romney.

Ultimately, the changes seen aren't necessarily tied to recent poll numbers, but the dropping of polls from October. I'm hopeful that when this race heats up, things won't shift as radically as there will be more polling data out there to pick from so that we're not looking at a situation with just one or two polls in a three month span. That makes it pretty erratic when one poll is dropped from the average, but it seems pointless to use a poll from October when so much can change in three months.

So, the important thing here is that Obama continues to hold a lead and Romney still struggles getting close to 270, coming 33 electoral votes short - even with Florida, and his less-than-one-percent lead there.

[jaxx]

Thanks for the update DI. It's going to get really interesting from here on out.

[Drunken Irishman]

One minor update: Mason-Dixon has released a new poll that has Obama up by a point in Virginia. Removing the polls from October, which is a lifetime ago, Obama's deficit now turns into a two-point advantage over Romney. His average total is 45% and Romney's is 43%. Because of this, I have moved Virginia over to Obama's column, which puts his total at 299 electoral votes to Romney's 224 - with 15 undecided.

[azmouse]

It'll be interesting to see how all this changes when the Republicans finally chose which loser gets the nomination.