Gallup Finds Unemployment Down to 8.8% in November

[Pirate Smile]

Quote:Gallup Finds Unemployment Down to 8.8% in NovemberUnderemployment falls to a new 2010 low of 17.2%by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined to 8.8% at the end of November -- down from 9.2% in mid-November and 9.4% at the end of October, and a new low for the year. While the government's unemployment report on Friday will include seasonal adjustments and is less timely than Gallup's Daily monitoring, Gallup modeling suggests that it will also show a decline.

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The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work declined slightly to 8.4% of the workforce in November -- also a new 2010 low. The smaller decline for this measure compared with the unemployment measure suggests that the jobs situation is improving primarily among the unemployed right now.

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Underemployment at Lowest Level of 2010

The decline in the unemployment rate and the slight decline in the percentage of part-time workers wanting full-time work combine to bring underemployment down to 17.2%. This is a third consecutive new 2010 low, down from 17.7% in mid-November and 18% at the end of October.

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Unemployment Situation Improving

Gallup's unemployment measure reflects what is actually taking place in the U.S. job market as more people are getting hired and fewer are being let go. However, it is not adjusted for seasonal trends, and companies hire more employees during the holiday season. For example, the new pop-up store phenomenon creates added employment for holidays like Halloween and Christmas. As a result, the decline in Gallup's estimate of the unemployment rate is likely more pronounced than what the government will report on Friday. Further, Gallup's Daily tracking is more up-to-date than the government's measure, which is based on mid-month job market conditions.

As a result, and as noted previously, Gallup estimates that the government's unemployment rate for November is likely to show a decline, into the 9.3% to 9.5% range. This is below the 9.6% current government unemployment rate as well as the consensus forecast of 9.7% for November. On the other hand, it appears to be consistent with Wednesday's ADP report showing increased private-sector job growth in November.

If the decline in Gallup's U.S. unemployment measure persists, it suggests that the government's unemployment rate for December could show a further decline when reported in early January. In turn, prospects for an improving jobs situation suggest good things for the nation's retailers -- particularly late in the holiday sales season -- and for the U.S. economy overall going forward.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/145004/Gallup...ember.aspx

Hmmm ... the graphs didn't show.

[Julie]

I hope at least some of this is permanent and not all due to seasonal hiring. Come January we'll get a clearer picture of this I suppose. Until then I can be happy about the improvement, even if it's not all permanent.

Julie

[Kindness of Blue]

(12-02-2010 11:13 AM)Julie Wrote:  I hope at least some of this is permanent and not all due to seasonal hiring. Come January we'll get a clearer picture of this I suppose. Until then I can be happy about the improvement, even if it's not all permanent.

Julie

Listening to Andrea Stewart and Chris Celizza a little while ago, the UE is still over 9.8% making it difficult for Obama's re-election in 2012. JESUS, even on a day of good news in the news, the newscasters can't even get their facts right.

Thanks for posting this, Julie. This is something to be happy about