One thing about Super PACs...

[Drunken Irishman]

And maybe I'm way wrong here and if I am, tell me and ignore what I've said...

But Super PACs don't necessarily fund the ground games, the boots on the ground, the rallies and travel of a candidate. Romney is already facing financial trouble in the Republican primary because he's spending more than he's taking in.

In the general, that problem will resurface and I believe could severely handicap his chance of campaigning in swing states. Sure, the Super PACs will saturate the airways with negative ads, but rallies, the ground resources, are what wins in November.

There, Obama runs circles around all the Republicans. He'll have troops ready to go at a drop of a hat and certainly will be able to open more offices in states (already has) than Romney. He'll also hold more rallies, spend more time in swing states, because his campaign will easily out-raise the Romney campaign.

At least, that's how I see it. Like I said, though, I might be wrong.

[pappy]

Let me tell you about the ground game that just rolled through Ohio. Now admittedly I get out a lot less now that I am retired and I also live in a very blue community but we always have Republican campaign signs around town. This year not one yard sign for any Publican candidate. Lots and lots of signs for Democratic primary candidates.

I did see plenty of TV ads. I cannot remember any that I would call positive.

The majority of personal outreach seemed to come from robocalls (if that could be called personal). What struck me is that I got two calls for Romney even though I have never voted in a Republican primary, In fact the Cleveland Plain Dealer ran a brief story about Democrats getting robocalls from Romney. When asked about that his campaign said that the calls were only targeted at Publicans and perhaps it was aimed at someone in the household other than the person answering. In a word, bullshit.

In other words that vaunted superpac money is not buying anything except media access and even that was marginally effective.

[Drunken Irishman]

That's how I see it. People are going to start tuning out the negative ads and they'll lose their impact.

This election will be won on the ground.

[jaxx]

I think you're right about the Super PACs not funding the ground game DI. As far as I can tell they aren't supposed to be in cahoots with the campaign itself.....only to do ads, mailings, etc on their own. How much of that is adhered to is probably way above zero.

President Obama has grassroots efforts in about all the states, offices open even before the pubs did in states that already have had primaries.

[pappy]

(03-09-2012 07:43 PM)jaxx Wrote:  I think you're right about the Super PACs not funding the ground game DI. As far as I can tell they aren't supposed to be in cahoots with the campaign itself.....only to do ads, mailings, etc on their own. How much of that is adhered to is probably way above zero.

President Obama has grassroots efforts in about all the states, offices open even before the pubs did in states that already have had primaries.

While it is true that the "pacs" cannot coordinate with the campaign there is nothing in the rules (that I have seen) which forbids them from doing their own ground game. In 2008 our local group of volunteers often ran into non-official groups from pacs or unions also canvassing the same neighborhoods independently of our efforts.

I believe the only think that has changed is that the money cap on donations to those groups has been eliminated. They could mount a ground game if they chose but I doubt they will because it will also require a significant amount of manpower.

[Drunken Irishman]

(03-10-2012 06:59 AM)pappy Wrote:  

(03-09-2012 07:43 PM)jaxx Wrote:  I think you're right about the Super PACs not funding the ground game DI. As far as I can tell they aren't supposed to be in cahoots with the campaign itself.....only to do ads, mailings, etc on their own. How much of that is adhered to is probably way above zero.

President Obama has grassroots efforts in about all the states, offices open even before the pubs did in states that already have had primaries.

While it is true that the "pacs" cannot coordinate with the campaign there is nothing in the rules (that I have seen) which forbids them from doing their own ground game. In 2008 our local group of volunteers often ran into non-official groups from pacs or unions also canvassing the same neighborhoods independently of our efforts.

I believe the only think that has changed is that the money cap on donations to those groups has been eliminated. They could mount a ground game if they chose but I doubt they will because it will also require a significant amount of manpower.

Right. They're essentially just going to flood these states with ads - from television to mailers. It'll be ugly. BUT the good thing is I think negative ads work less and less over the years. We'll see, though.

[There Is No Spoon]

I think you've made an astute observation here DI.

Romney is begging for money for a reason.