My thoughts on the SC & the healthcare law...

[Drunken Irishman]

This isn't getting as much press as it probably should. This issue will define the 2012 race, at least in terms of the healthcare debate.

My guess is that the Supreme Court upholds the healthcare law, though it's entirely possible my judgment is being clouded by hope. Who knows.

Regardless, there are some positive signs. For one, the Democratic appointed Justices are almost certainly more unified than the Republican appointed Justices.

So, that means, for it to stand, all we need is one vote from Kennedy, Alito or Roberts. I don't think there's a chance of getting Scalia and Thomas is a lost cause no matter what.

Kennedy is the most likely. Kennedy is a swing vote as is and if this is a 5-4 decision, either way, it'll be Kennedy deciding to be that fifth vote.

Will he vote to strike it down or vote to keep it?

Again, my gut says he'll vote to keep it. But who knows.

While no one likes this vote going to the SC and it will certainly be damaging if it is struck down, there's also a chance for it to provide Obama a huge win. If the SC rules, even if narrowly, that the mandate is constitutional, it will cripple the Republicans' arguments that it needs to be overturned. Out goes any debate on the healthcare matter, at least, any credible debate. Especially since this vote will require at least one Republican appointed Justice.

Now, if by chance the court rules in a solid majority to keep it, say maybe even Scalia, who has ruled in favor of the federal government before, then any chance of a credible Republican attack is lost. If Scalia supports it - they're done.

Still, I don't care how many support it, just as long as 5 do.

What do you think?

[There Is No Spoon]

Thinking similar to you. And I do hope it is upheld. If they overturn, the decision might be seen as political, though one could make that argument in either case. The majority opinion better be well written and supported Constitutionally if it's to have any credibility.

[NJMaverick]

however after the stealing of the 2000 election and the screw you America Citizen's United ruling what they will actually rule is anyone's guess

[Andy823]

(03-18-2012 02:38 PM)NJMaverick Wrote:  however after the stealing of the 2000 election and the screw you America Citizen's United ruling what they will actually rule is anyone's guess

I agree.

[jaxx]

The Roberts Court scares me. However the lower courts have found in favor of the ACA more often than against and that may help to see it through.
I would love to see it upheld.

[SeattleGirl]

(03-18-2012 08:34 PM)jaxx Wrote:  The Roberts Court scares me. However the lower courts have found in favor of the ACA more often than against and that may help to see it through.
I would love to see it upheld.

So would I.

[Drunken Irishman]

Only 34% on Intrade are betting that it'll be overturned. So, general consensus seems to suggest it will be upheld. Anyone know when they'll announce their ruling?

[jaxx]

I found this:

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Cases
March 26-28, 2012

Listed below are live links to the orders, case filings, and other information pertaining to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act cases. Click on each item to access further information.

http://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/PPAACA.aspx

No date listed for decision.

[Drunken Irishman]

I also found this:

Legal experts predict a Supreme Court win for 'Obamacare'

Quote:The result: 85% said the act would be upheld, mainly because they believed the court would find the requirement that all adult Americans obtain insurance coverage to be constitutional. A small faction -- 9% -- believed the court would hold that the challenge to the law was premature because the provisions being challenged won't go into effect until 2014. Most of those polled also said that if the court struck down the individual mandate, it would leave the rest of the act intact.

The article also says that they'll hear oral arguments this month. So, maybe soon?