Walker recall battle is a dead heat

[There Is No Spoon]

Dem poll: Walker recall battle is a dead heat
By Greg Sargent

Many Washington pundits have declared the battle to recall Scott Walker all but over, and at least one public poll has shown Walker with a five point lead. This has created a problem for labor and Dems, who worry that impressions that the race can't be won could depress enthusiasm among Dems in a battle that will likely be decided by who turns out to vote.

But make no mistake: Dems and labor still think the race is a dead heat. They are supplying their own polling data to make the case, and to energize the base in the home stretch.

A new poll taken by pollster Celinda Lake — who is a Democrat but is well respected by polling professionals — has found that the battle between Scott Walker and challenger Tom Barrett is now deadlocked, at 49 percent each.

The poll — which will be released later today and was comissioned by the pro-labor Greater Wisconsin Committee’s political fund — also finds that independents are breaking towards Barrett, 49-44.

... http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum..._blog.html

[Drunken Irishman]

I think Barrett is going to lose. I hate thinking that, but it just seems to me the only polls out there that show him close enough to win are Democratic-leaning polls or insider polls that shouldn't ever be trusted. I get the perception of Walker winning might dispirit voter turnout for Democrats, but until I actually see a couple polls that show Barrett leading, I'm bracing for defeat.

[There Is No Spoon]

(05-30-2012 07:50 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  I think Barrett is going to lose. I hate thinking that, but it just seems to me the only polls out there that show him close enough to win are Democratic-leaning polls or insider polls that shouldn't ever be trusted. I get the perception of Walker winning might dispirit voter turnout for Democrats, but until I actually see a couple polls that show Barrett leading, I'm bracing for defeat.

I was attempting to raise people's spirits a bit - we all know about the other polls.

[Drunken Irishman]

Well you should know me by now, I'm a downer.

[There Is No Spoon]

(05-30-2012 08:06 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  Well you should know me by now, I'm a downer.

I hadn't noticed.

[jaxx]

It's not over till it's over. Today Feingold held a rally with Barrett. Bill Clinton is going to WI.

The people of WI are being hit with robo calls from the wingers that tie up the lines and pamphlets to Dems telling them to be sure to vote on June 12.....the election is June 5.

Why would people give up before they get to vote? Sour grapes.....sometimes Democrats seem like they're afraid to hope. They set themselves up to lose. Freakin mind blowing.

[azmouse]

(05-30-2012 08:06 PM)Drunken Irishman Wrote:  Well you should know me by now, I'm a downer.

I'm worried too.

[Drunken Irishman]

No one should give up. But even hope can be false. I remember in '08 a lot of Republicans telling themselves that there was no way Obama could beat McCain and that a late surge would deliver McCain the White House. They'd then point to one or two polls that showed McCain down only five or so and say, "see, it's close!", while ignoring every other poll that showed Obama up by a comfortable margin.

What I'm saying is that while no one should throw in the towel and I hope people get out to vote, all signs point to a Walker victory. That can change, obviously, and maybe we're seeing Barrett claw his way back into it. But right now, I see no evidence to get my hopes up. Sadly, I wish I could. But after 2010, when people kept telling me, "don't believe the polls!", I've decided to, well, believe the polls.